March 5,2008:
The Taliban in Pakistan have lost a lot of grassroots support over the
last year. The accumulated Taliban defeats have eroded popular support. This
could be seen in the recent elections, where 90 percent of the radical
candidates that got elected five years ago, lost. Recruiting is more difficult,
and more tribes are turning on the Islamic radicals. This has given the more
radical Taliban more power, and made al Qaeda tactics more popular. That means
more suicide bombings. But that also means more terrorists are getting
arrested, Pakistan has rounded up 442 in the past three months, most in the
Pushtun (northwest) and Baluchi (southwest) tribal areas. Al Qaeda and the
Taliban radicals have responded in the last two weeks with half a dozen suicide
bomb attacks meant to terrorize the police and military leadership. Thus a
policeman's funeral in the Swat valley was attacked, killing over three dozen
mourners. The chief medical officer of the army was killed, and the Naval War
College attacked. But these attacks are not widespread or violent enough to
force the police and military to back off. Rather, the attacks cause the
soldiers and police to want revenge. While many tribal policemen (recruited for
work in the tribal areas because of their knowledge of the language, customs
and usual suspects) will resign, or be dismissed, for refusing to fight the
tribes, the vast majority of police and troops keep at it. Some of the al Qaeda
bombings have been directed at pro-government tribal leaders. This simply
causes more hatred of al Qaeda, which is seen as a "foreign" organization.
Arabs in general are not as popular as they used to be, in the tribal areas.
So far
this year, nearly 500 people have died from Islamic radical violence in
Pakistan. The army says it has the radicals on the run, and that all the enemy
can do is make individual terror attacks. Some Islamic radical violence is
appreciated, as when the radicals go after drug dealers. Cheap opium and heroin
from Afghanistan has created over a million addicts in Pakistan. The families
of the addicts will support just about any measures that will cut access to the
drugs.
March 2,
2008: The Pakistani government formally
accused Baitullah Mehsud, a Taliban leader based in South Waziristan, near the
Afghan border, with masterminding the assassination of Benazir Bhutto. Mehsud
is of the new generation of more ruthless, gangster and murderous Taliban
leaders. Mehsud is also close with al Qaeda, and apparently used those contacts
to arrange the Bhutto hit. Mehsud denies all this, but was apparently caught on
the phone boasting of his involvement.
February
27, 2008: India tested its first SLBM
(sea launched ballistic missile), the K-15, using an improvised underwater
silo. The test was a success. India is planning the construction of subs that
can use the K-15, and hopes to have them in service within a decade.
February
26, 2008: Ayman al Zawahri, al Qaeda's number 2 guy, and the real brains behind
the operation, released his first video of the year (he released 15 video and
audio messages last year.) Zawahri vowed revenge for the recent death of al
Qaeda number 3 guy, Abu Laith al Libi, who had a fatal encounter with a U.S. missile
in Pakistan. Having lost in Iraq, and not made much progress anywhere else, al
Qaeda is under a lot of pressure to accomplish something, anything, to escape
being tagged as a loser and irrelevant. Islamic radicalism is still popular
with the young, unemployed and unmarried Moslem guys, but al Qaeda is slipping
in the polls.
February
23, 2008: Over 500 armed Maoists launched several attacks on police facilities
in the Indian state of Orissa, and stole over a thousand weapons, plus radios
and other equipment. While less than five percent of Indian police stations
have to worry about Maoist rebels, those that do are facing a well armed and
violent opponent (who is dedicated to turning India into a communist dictatorship.)