May 26,2008:
The U.S. has made four missile
attacks on the Taliban leadership in Pakistan so far this year, causing Islamic
groups to get very angry and vow revenge. But against who? For the moment, the
main targets are those working for the Pakistani government. These Islamic
terrorists have killed over 600 Pakistanis with attacks so far this year. Some
senior Pakistani generals believe that all the terrorist activity is the work
of foreigners and, as one division commander put it, "no Pushtun is a
terrorist." This only works if you accept pro-Taliban activities as simply
another quaint Pushtun custom. Meanwhile, the Pakistani Army does consider
Taliban chief Baitullah Mehsud a threat. The Pushtun warlord has been isolated,
by army roadblocks, in his tribal
homeland headquarters. Despite that, the reduction in army activity over the
last two months has led to a sharp increase in activity (from 60 attacks a week
to 100) by Pakistani Taliban inside eastern Afghanistan. Pakistani military
leaders either deny the activity of Pakistani Taliban in Afghanistan, or insist
they are "rogue elements", and not very numerous. Meanwhile, the Pakistanis are
more realistic about the Pakistani Taliban, and the violence they commit
against the army and government officials. Some of this is simply tribal anger
at government interference in legal, or illegal, activities by tribesmen. But
the army knows it cannot tolerate the anti-government violence and expect any
kind of Pakistani control in the tribal areas to survive. So the troops are
fighting against those who attack government employees, but not those who just
want to organize pro-Taliban attacks in Afghanistan. This means that Islamic
militants are still making attacks in the tribal areas (suicide bombs and
gunfire directed at troops, and the usual violence against girls schools and
the like), and the army responds by hunting down these terrorists. Sometimes,
these raids also take down a Taliban training center, but that's just a
coincidence.
The U.S. has,
in effect, paid Pakistan a bribe of over $10 billion (since September 11, 2001),
in return for help in shutting down pro-terrorist activity along the Afghan
border. The Pakistanis are backing away from this, and making a deal with the
terrorists to eliminate terrorist attacks inside Pakistan, in return for
allowing the Islamic terrorists (al Qaeda and Taliban) sanctuaries along the
border. This is not a novel concept. European and Middle Eastern nations have,
for decades, been making similar deals (and doing it very quietly.) The U.S. is
not helpless here. Cutting off military aid will weaken Pakistan in the face of
what they see as the Indian threat. Even more disturbing would be a reduction
in economic aid (including access to U.S. markets) which would cause civil
disorder inside Pakistan. The U.S. has been making the threats quietly, but if
this goes public, it means a showdown.
May 25,
2008: In Rajasthan (northwest India),
three days of civil disorder have left nearly 40 dead, and over a hundred
injured. The cause is an effort by an organization representing one of the
lower Hindu castes to be reclassified as one of the lowest castes, and thus
become eligible for millions of dollars in government benefits. The caste
system (an aspect of the Hindu religion, which separates all Hindus into four
main castes, and discourages relationships with those in the lowest caste, who
are often called "the untouchables") is technically illegal, but it still
exists, and the government provides all sorts of aid to help the hundred
million or so people in the lowest castes.
May 23,
2008: The Pakistani government signed a peace deal the pro-Taliban tribesmen in
the Swat valley. This has led to an exchange of kidnap victims for jailed tribal
militants and terrorists. No one really
expects the Taliban to keep their side of the deal. They never have in the
past.
In New
Delhi, India, police arrested a member of the Harkat ul Jihad e Islami Islamic
terrorists organization, and seized explosives and other bomb making material.
This group comes from Bangladesh, and it appears that Islamic terror attacks
this year are mainly from Bangladesh based groups, not Pakistan.
May 21,
2008: Indian Maoist rebels have stepped
up their recruitment of young teenagers as fighters. It's been more difficult
to get adults to volunteer, partly because increased government activity has
made it more dangerous to carry a gun for the Maoists. The kids are easier to
train and control.