September 16, 2008:
The war against the Taliban is running into
problems with international borders. On the Pakistani side of the border, there
are about 100,000 Pakistani army and paramilitary troops operating against the
Taliban, while on the Afghan side there is a similar size force containing
Afghan and foreign (NATO, U.S. and Afghan) troops doing the same. All this to
chase down fewer than 20,000 armed tribesmen who refuse to behave. The
tribesmen back the Taliban, which calls for a religious dictatorship in Afghanistan
and Pakistan. The tribesmen have long memories. Five centuries ago, Pushtun
tribesmen were part of an army that marched down out of the mountains and
conquered lowland Pakistan and most of northern India. Those days are gone, but
many tribesmen didn't get the memo. In any event, most of them are illiterate
and impoverished and don't pay a lot of attention to reality. It's been that
way for a long time, and larceny has always been seen as a legitimate path to
prosperity. The Pushtun tribesmen don't like outside interference, although,
over the centuries, the tribes have been beaten many times when they tried to
extend their power beyond their remote vallies.
Taliban terrorism has killed about
1,200 people in Pakistan during the last year, while the security forces are currently
killing several hundred terrorists and Taliban fighters a month. Although the
Taliban have many sympathizers in the military and intelligence agencies, this
no longer prevents the army from fighting the Taliban (to prevent the tribesmen
from taking over towns and cities along the border.) But it does prevent
cooperation with the American counter-terror forces. The United States has a
lot of information on where the terrorists, especially al Qaeda, are in
Pakistan, but having Pakistani troops act on that information doesn't work. The
terrorists tend to get tipped off by their fans in the army and intelligence
agencies, and this endangers the informant network the U.S. has set up in the
tribal areas. The Pakistanis admit this is a problem, and has long been
tolerating some American operations inside Pakistan. For several years, U.S. Predator
UAVs were tolerated, along with an occasional Hellfire missile fired at
meetings of senior terrorist leaders. But many such opportunities would be
better exploited if commandoes were sent
in to capture the terrorist leaders. In the last few months, the U.S. changed
its policy, after quietly warning the Pakistani leadership, and allowed
commando raids despite Pakistani protests. It didn't take long for the Pakistani
terrorists and media everywhere to get hold of this and raise a stink. This
forced the Pakistanis to go through the motions of protesting and vowing to
fight the American invaders. The Pakistanis threatened to halt NATO supplies,
which go from a Pakistani port, via truck, into Afghanistan. But that's a
hollow threat, as Pakistan depends on American weapons and other military aid,
to equip Pakistani forces sufficiently so they can deal with archenemy India.
Pakistan's only other supplier is China, which provides decidedly inferior
weapons, at least compared to the American stuff.
Taliban gunmen are standing and
fighting in their strongholds along the Pakistani-Afghan border. In places like
Bajaur, 50-100 Taliban a day have been killed this week. Several hundred thousand
civilians have fled to avoid all the shooting, shelling and bombing. The
Taliban have been able to slow down, but not stop, the troops. In the past two
weeks, U.S. Predator UAVs have launched their missiles five times against
terrorist targets in Pakistan. The Taliban are playing down their losses to
these attacks, and grinding out the press material featuring the civilian
casualties. The Taliban and al Qaeda try to keep civilians nearby, to use them
as human shields. This sometimes works, and when it doesn't, you can claim that
the attack is a war crime.
In Indian Kashmir, Islamic terrorists
continue sneaking across the border, from their camps in Pakistan. The
crossings tend to increase this time of year, because soon the Winter snow will
shut down many crossing points (up in the mountains, where forests make it
easier to sneak past the border guards.)
September 15, 2008: In Pakistan's Swat valley, the Taliban have
released 25 paramilitary police who were taken prisoner two months ago. The
army has been hammering the Taliban in the Swat valley, and the Taliban are
trying to persuade the army to stop. Apparently, the army is under orders to
keep going until the Taliban no longer control territory.
In the last month, at least 35
Christians have been killed in central India by Hindu fanatics. Local Hindu
politicians are trying to turn the murder of a Hindu cleric into an
anti-Christian crusade. Most Indian Christians are converts from Hinduism,
usually by poor, lower caste Hindus. This angers higher caste Hindus, who try
to organize violence against Christians in general. The fear is that the
Christians are trying to destroy Hinduism via conversion. The Hindu violence
has never been widespread, and it's local demagogues who stir up violence, and
are often, but not always, arrested for it.
September 13, 2008: Five bombs went off in India's capital,
killing 21 and wounding a hundred. Police had feared this, because of the
growing number of young Indian Moslem men turning to Islamic radicalism. This
is coming from long-term anti Moslem tensions in India. Islam failed to convert
India to Islam when Moslem armies arrived five hundred years ago. Realizing
that the Hindus were resistant to Islamic conversion, the Moslem rulers adopted
a policy of tolerance. This persisted through two centuries of British rule. But
Islam was founded on conquest and forced conversion, and that remains a popular
concept with many Moslems. Most Indian Moslems adopted milder forms of Islam,
but many young Moslems are attracted to more conservative and violent
approaches. Al Qaeda is urging these kids to kill for the cause, with the idea
being it would cause civil war and an opportunity for Moslems to take control
of India. That doesn't make much sense, but we're dealing with religious
fanaticism here, and logic has little to do with it. There are believed to be
several hundred organized Islamic terrorists in India, with a few dozen of them
being particularly active.
September 11, 2008: Pakistani troops continue to battle al Qaeda
and Taliban gunmen in of the Bajaur region along the Afghan border. Troops
killed about a hundred tribesmen and foreigners today. The foreigners are
believed to be al Qaeda. Those that are captured admit as much. Bajaur is one
of the more active areas where Taliban gunmen cross into Afghanistan.
September 10, 2008: Pakistan's newly
elected president, Asif Ali Zardari, met
with the Afghan president and pledged to work together to defeat the Taliban. Zardari's wife was the assassinated (by the Taliban)
politician (and former Prime Minister) Benazir Bhutto. Zardari has long been
dogged by corruption charges, and recently received a pardon. Before he was
elected president, the office has some key powers removed (like being able to
dissolve parliament and call new elections.) Zardari is more of a figurehead
than his predecessors.
Pakistan also has problems with
tribesmen making cross border raids into Iran. In the southwest (Baluchistan)
Sunni Baluchi tribesmen are fighting to help their fellow tribesmen just across
the border, who have long been at odds with the Shia government of Iran. Shia
and Sunni have had religious and political differences in this part of the
world for centuries.
In northern Pakistan, near the Afghan
border, Islamic militants apparently were responsible for a grenade and gunfire
attack on a Sunni mosque, leaving 20 dead and 30 wounded.