June 30, 2007:
The capture of the senior leaders of
Jemaah Islamiah (JI) has destroyed that organization, for the moment.
What's still out there are fringe radical groups, and dozens of clerics who
still preach jihad against infidels (non-Moslems). Police have most of these
clerics under surveillance, trying to find any Islamic radical followers who
might be moving towards terrorism. The
police and courts have been quick to arrest, prosecute and jail all those
involved in terrorist activities, no matter how minor the role. While the
sentences are often lenient, the message is clear. Do the crime, you do some
time. The biggest problem Islamic
terrorists have had in Indonesia is the opposition from most Moslems there.
Islam morphed a bit in Indonesia, as it did in most nations (especially those
very distant from Arabia, where Islam was born). Indonesian Islam was never all that hard
core, and retained many aspects of pre-Islamic religions. This enrages
conservative Moslems, whether they be Indonesian, or from abroad. But attempts to get
Indonesians to adopt foreign versions of Islam only appeals to some of the
urban hipsters. Many of them are now sitting in jail, or under police
surveillance, for getting involved in terrorist activities. Islamic
conservatives have changed their tactics, and are trying to get counter-terror
laws repealed and certain police organizations disbanded. While doing that,
Islamic conservatives condemn Islamic terrorist attacks in Indonesia
"misguided" unless they hit a target like a Western embassy. The
Islamic conservatism line is that terror attacks on non-military targets is
wrong (not just morally, but tactically). The Indonesian terrorists are trying
to reorganize as a more disciplined organization, that hits only targets
guaranteed to increase their popularity with the average Indonesian. That will
be difficult, as the average Indonesian wants the Islamic radicals to shut up
and go away.
June 20, 2007:
Peacekeepers in East Timor have halted the four month search for rebel
army officer Major Alfredo Reinado. With elections coming up, it was considered
more important to prevent violence between politically oriented gangs, than to
chase a small group of fugitives.
June 17, 2007:
In East Timor, youth gangs still rule the streets. There are not enough
local for foreign police to keep these kids from doing whatever they want. The gangs only attract police attention when
there is a large scale fight. The unemployment rate is over 50 percent and
about a quarter of the population would starve to death were it not for free
food from foreign aid organizations. East Timor's economic and political
prospects are bleak. But the UN is determined to make it work, as the UN has
signed on to allow more "micro-states" (like Kosovo) to emerge. More
nations means more UN members, which is a good thing for the UN bureaucracy.