February 17, 2008:
Russia has delivered 120 tons of nuclear
material for Iranian nuclear power plants. This fuel will power the first plant
(producing 1,000 megawatts), which goes online this Summer. Construction on a
second plan, producing 360 megawatts, has begun. Despite this, Iran has
obtained and implemented a more efficient centrifuge design for producing
nuclear material for nuclear weapons. This has alarmed even Russia, which has
long defended Iran's claim that they are only producing nuclear fuel for power
plants, not for nuclear weapons.
Sanctions have blocked the importation
of equipment needed to build refineries, so most gasoline has to be imported. Gasoline
rationing, which began last May, has cut sharply into the $5 billion a year the
government had to pay for imported gasoline (which is sold at highly subsidized
prices). This has forced many of the 7 million Iranian automobile owners to get
some of their fuel from the black market, where the price is ten times higher
(about $4 a gallon) compared to the subsidized, and rationed, price. This is
very unpopular. So are the continuing activities of the lifestyle police,
although in many parts of the country, widespread public hostility (often in
the form of spontaneously forming angry mobs) have forced the lifestyle police
to back off, and stay out of many neighborhoods.
Iran has opened a satellite launching
center, and televised the launch of one of its larger ballistic missiles, in a
test of their satellite launching capabilities. There will be two more test
launches before the first attempt to put a satellite into orbit. Each rocket
costs $5-10 million (depending on how the accountants allocate expenses). Iran
plans to put three satellites up over the next two years. Given the rockets
that Iran has, they could put satellites weighing a few hundred pounds into a
low orbit (160-2,000 kilometers up). With technical help from China and Russia,
Iran could build crude (by current standards) communications or photo satellites.
This would provide about the same class coverage as Google Earth, but on a more
timely basis. Iran could also build electronic reconnaissance satellites, but
it is unlikely that Russia or China would share the technology needed to build
these birds. So Iran's space program appears to be largely for propaganda
purposes.
The head of Iran's Central Bank boasted
that Arab banks in Bahrain and the United Arab Emirates have assisted Iran in
avoiding American efforts to block Iranian access to the international banking
system. Iran needs this access to maintain its smuggling effort, to bring in
weapons and industrial equipment that various sanctions prevent them getting legally. The U.S. has been very
active in going after Iranian offshore banking activities. This has even
included secret meetings between U.S. and Iran banking officials. Despite what
the Iranian banking officials say, the American banking sanctions have hurt.
The Guardian Council (the highest power
in the country) continues to examine those who wish to run for parliament, and
barring those they feel are unworthy. Reform-minded candidates rarely bother to
apply anymore, and most of those who are rejected (about a third of the
applicants) are cut because of criminal backgrounds or bad reputation in
general. These are people who are willing to play along with the clerical
dictatorship, but want to get in on the corrupt practices, and make some money.
Iranian support for Islamic terrorists
in Iraq and Afghanistan appear to be declining. There is a dispute within the
Iranian government over the wisdom of supporting Islamic terrorists, especially
Sunni Arab groups like al Qaeda and the Taliban, just because they attack American
troops. This strategy has backfired, because these terrorists kill mostly
civilians, and often target Shia Moslems. Iran presents itself as the defender
of Shia Islam, and this support for Sunni Moslem terror groups has become bad
for the Iranian image.