June 27,
2008: In East Baghdad, and Shia cities
throughout the south, the Mahdi Army is no more. The Iran supported group was taken
apart by government security forces during the last two months. All that's left
of radical cleric Muqtada al Sadr's private army are a few hundred die hard
members who are, for the moment, keeping their heads down. And for good reason.
While appreciated in 2006 -7 for keeping Sunni Arab terrorists out of Shia
neighborhoods, the Mahdi Army quickly evolved into a collection of self-serving
thugs. Once civilians realized that the army and police were stronger, and
moving in to stay, the cell phones came out and the police were buried in tips
about Mahdi Army safe houses and arms caches. Sadr has been hiding out in Iran
through all this.
Sunni Arab
terrorist diehards are undergoing the same experience up north, but with more
violence. Around Mosul, U.S. Special Forces teams, which have been chasing al
Qaeda leaders for years, are having enormous success. The surge offensive drove
many al Qaeda, and Iraqi Sunni Arab terrorist leaders to the Mosul area, where
a spectacular last stand was supposed to give the terrorists a badly needed
victory. Didn't work out that way, and now the terrorist leaders are either
hunkering down, or running for the border. Either way, they are getting caught.
The combination of wide spread cell phone availability, and anti-terrorist Iraqis,
is giving the police and Special Forces the tips they need.
The
downside of all this is that U.S. troops are now regularly travelling to areas,
long been labeled "extremely hostile", they have never been in before. While
those Sunni Arab towns are generally considered safe and well policed for
Iraqis, there are still scattered groups of terrorists about, capable of
pulling off an impromptu ambush or suicide bombing against foreigners. The
terrorists are also using more women as bombers, there having been an outbreak
of Islamic feminism on the Internet, where the women demanded that they be
allowed to participate and die for the cause. Since women suicide bombers have
been, and still are, quite rare, their chances of evading security are better.
The overall result of this new freedom-of-movement is a near doubling of American
combat deaths (from the record low last month of 19).
Several
terrorist groups are trying to negotiate some kind of amnesty deal, using
kidnapping victims as trade bait. These hostages have, in some cases, been held
for a long time. The most prominent of these, five British citizens, have been
captives for a year (as terrorists demanded the release of nine pro-Iran
killers). This has put the government in a difficult position, as hundreds of
Iraqis are being held (some may actually be dead, but even getting "proof-of-life"
requires giving the kidnappers something.) While most Iraqis want the hostages
released, they also do not want to reward the terrorists.
The defeat
of the major terrorist organizations is bringing the spotlight back to Iraq
(and the Arab worlds) primary problem; corruption. With reconstruction money
and police pouring into Sunni Arab towns for the first time in seven years, there's
been some culture shock. The Sunni Arabs have long been accustomed to the old
rules (which Saddam Hussein exploited artfully) whereby local strongmen were
paid off, and then these tough guys did whatever it took (murder, kidnapping,
mutilation, etc) to keep the locals quiet. The new Shia government is trying
(with mixed success) to get away from the old ways. It isn't easy. Centuries of
tradition don't willingly change overnight. There will be more violence, as
corrupt locals decide old school customs are worth killing for. Actually, they
always have been, which is why most Arab nations are police states, where
murder, or the threat of it, is the final arbiter of disputes with the
government. Meanwhile, reconstruction efforts are delayed, or derailed, by
rampant theft, lies and deception supplied by local officials.
U.S. troops
are back to their pre-surge strength of 15 brigades, although troop strength is
a little higher (142,000 versus 135,000) because some additional support units
are still around. The surge offensive that began in early 2007 has reduced
Iraqi civilian casualties by 80 percent and lowered violence against U.S. troops
to 2004 levels. But a lot of this security is held together by U.S. troops, who
still advise and assist Iraqi troops and police. American commanders believe
that it's only a matter of time before all Iraqi units are capable of doing
their jobs on their own, but for now only about ten percent of Iraqi police and
military units are in that category. It may take 5-10 years to get everyone
able to operate on their own. Meanwhile, ten of Iraq's 18 provinces have their
security provided by Iraqi security forces, with Iraqis in charge (and U.S. forces
just on call.)