December1, 2005:
The terrorists are getting desperate. They have resumed
political kidnappings, something that fell out of favor after a flurry of it
last year. Normally, nearly all the hundred or so kidnappings each week are
criminal operations, often yielding as little as a few hundred dollars. But in
the last week, four Western peace activists and a German academic were taken by
a new terror group. Shia pilgrims were also seized. Since last year, when 41
Westerners were killed by kidnappers, people who are choice targets (foreign
reconstruction workers, diplomats) improved their security to the point
where the seizures stopped. So now the terrorists are going after
"soft" targets. That is, people who support the terrorists (in the
case of the peace activists, who want coalition troops out, which is the main
goal of the Sunni Arab terrorist groups). Taking Shia pilgrims just inflames
the passions of Shia gangs and militias, bringing more attacks on Sunni Arabs.
Grabbing the peace activists actually helps the government, as it forces many
Sunni Arab leaders to assist in negotiating to get the Westerners freed. This
gives more Sunni Arab leaders more reasons to break with the terrorists, and
make a deal with the government. These deals involve extensive discussions on
who will get amnesty for crimes committed during Saddam's rule. Some Sunni
Arabs even want to keep property they stole from Shia Arabs or Kurds during
that time. In Iraq, you can't just say no, you have to discuss it at length. A
lot of these discussions are going on right now, just judging from the
mentions, in the Iraqi media, of various Sunni Arab leaders who are now
negotiating. In the next two weeks, before the December 15th parliamentary elections,
a lot more of these amnesty discussions are expected to get started.
Increasingly
the Sunni Arab terrorist groups are seen, by Sunni Arabs, as losers. Even
foreign Sunni Arabs are not volunteering as much as in the past. The core of
the terrorism campaign are the technicians who can build the bombs, and the
leaders, with cash, who can meet the payroll. Taking the lead from the Israeli
experience, American troops have been following an increasing flow of
intelligence, to hunt down the bomb factories, and the people who work in them.
Each bombing gets gone over by a crime scene investigation team, and the
identity of the bomb maker, increasingly, is determined. There are not
too many of them, and the U.S. operations in western Iraq are taking them down,
one or two at a time.
The
use of roadside bombs, as seen inside Iraq, is a PR nightmare for the
terrorists. Most of the bombs that go off, do not hit their intended targets,
and end up killing mostly civilians. Since more and more of the bombs are set
up in Sunni Arab areas (it's futile to try and do it in Shia Arab or Kurdish
neighborhoods), the civilians who get killed are the very people the terrorists
are depending on for support. The terrorists need that support, and without it,
more and more Sunni Arab religious and tribal leaders start negotiating with
the government. Whereas a year ago, many Sunni Arabs believed they could
eventually regain control of the country, now the majority opinion is that one
must cut a deal before a Shia or Kurdish death squad, or a war crimes
indictment, gets you. While Iraqis love their illusions, when death or
destitution gets really close, logic becomes more of a factor.