November 13, 2006: As far as the Shia Arabs are concerned, all of Iraq's problems are still caused by the Sunni Arabs. Therefore, get rid of the Sunni Arabs, and let the good times (and the oil money) roll. The Sunni Arab terrorists continue to support this attitude, by setting off bombs in Shia Arab neighborhoods. Despite a lot of bravado on the Internet, the Sunni Arabs are losing. Not just in body count, but in terms of sharply decreasing Sunni Arab population. The Shia Arab death squads are killing more Sunni Arabs than the terrorist bombs are killing Shia Arabs.
Attempts to keep the suicide bombers out of Iraq have failed largely because of poorly trained police, and corruption. The bomb teams can still bribe their way into the city. Meanwhile, parts of Anbar province, where some pro-Saddam tribes continue to offer bases for terrorists, look like a combat zone. Towns have a bombed out, shot-up and abandoned look. Anbar is being abandoned, as Sunni Arabs flee the country from both Anbar and Baghdad. While some Sunni Arab towns and neighborhoods can organize private guard forces, even these are helpless against police or soldiers moonlighting as Shia death squads.
The government has proved helpless in stopping the death squads. This is the dark side of democracy. The death squads are very popular among the Shia Arabs, and the Shia Arab politicians who dominate the government know it. While the Sunni Arab leadership has gone through the motions of trying to suppress the terrorists, it has not worked. The Shia Arabs see this ineffectiveness as tacit support for the continued terror attacks on Shia Arabs, and have increasingly turned on Sunni Arab leaders. The army and police now go after the well guarded Sunni Arab leaders, and arrest them on "suspicion of supporting terrorism."
When Saddam was found guilty and condemned to death, the Sunni Arab world was shocked. While Saddam was not well liked in the Sunni Arab world, he was admired for taking on the Iranians and Americans, and surviving. Plus, Saddam had a flair for publicity, and managed to portray himself as an Arab hero. So the thought of executing him brought forth outrage (largely unheard in the West), that also fueled the idea that the United States was a secret ally of Iran, against the Arabs. Now, of course this sounds absurd to Westerners, but it seems real enough in the Arab world (which is over 80 percent Sunni). Iraq has long been a key bulwark in defending the Arab world, and especially the "Arab Oil," from Iranian aggression. Now, because of the United States, it has come to this. The chief defender of Arabs against Iranians, Saddam Hussein, is to be hung like a common criminal. Saddam's Sunni Arab supporters are being driven out of Iraq. And now the Americans, tired of the casualties, are going to pull out of Iraq, leaving it a new province of Iran.
Some of that paranoia is justified, but Iraq's Shia Arabs have no desire to be ruled by Iranians. On and off over the last three thousand years, Iran has ruled what is now Iraq, and the experience has left a bad taste. Iraqi Shia Arabs will accept support from Iran to keep Sunni Arabs from regaining control, but they will strenuously resist Iranian domination. Iran will try to get around this via support of Shia Arab groups that back a religious dictatorship in Iraq. This could get interesting, and violent. But Iraqi Shia have seen what religious dictatorship has done for Iran, and most want no part of it. What Iraqi Shia do want is peace and prosperity. That is not a matter of religious rule, but of getting rid of the hated Sunni Arabs. In the West, there is an aversion to looking at Iraq in terms of religious war, and the expulsion of millions of losers. But that's what it is, and will continue be.
The Arab world sees the Democratic Party gains in the recent U.S. elections as a sign that Americans are getting tired of the violence in Iraq, and are ready to leave. The Arabs also see the Democrats are more pro-European, and thus more anti-Israel and more tolerant of Islamic terrorists and traditional forms of government (dictatorships and monarchies) in the Arab world. The elections also confirm, in the Arab mind, that the Americans cannot be trusted in the long run, have no stomach for bloodshed and can always be turned around by the more clever Arab tactics. For the Iraqi Shia Arabs, the departure of the Americans won't change anything. It was nice having them, their money, and their deadly soldiers around. But the Shia Arabs have enough guns, and people trained to use them, to deal with the Iraqi Sunni Arabs. The Americans have served their purpose, and it's time for them to go.