May 24, 2007:
The search, for the three American soldiers taken by terrorists after an
ambush on May 12th, has involved 6,000 troops (two thirds of them American) in
the Baghdad suburbs. The action has been much more aggressive than usual,
because of the urgency factor. Since there have been no terrorist videos of the
soldiers on the Internet, it is assumed that they are either dead, or held by
terrorists who are on the run and being pressed by the search operation. Over a
thousand Iraqis have been arrested so far, and two of them admitted they were
part of the ambush team (but not the group that took away the three U.S.
soldiers.) While many of the tips indicate the troops are still alive, it's
more likely they are dead. Yesterday, the body of one of the missing soldiers
was found in the Euphrates River, south of Baghdad. The searching troops are taking more casualties, but they are
tearing up terrorist and criminal operations in the area. Actually, most of the
bad guys caught so far have been common criminals, who are often eager to tell
what they know in return for a "get out of jail" card. American
military commanders and diplomats continue to remind Iraqi politicians that the
biggest problem in the country is corruption. That's hard for many Iraqis to
accept, since stealing whatever-you-can-get-your-hands-on has been a tradition
for so long. Many Iraqis assume it's the natural order of things, and consider
the Americans insane, or disrespectful, with all their talk of honest
government. The message, however, is getting
through, as it becomes obvious that Iraqs new democracy won't work with
the traditional Iraqi attitudes towards dishonesty in politics. This new
attitude is being reflected in many ways. There are more corruption
investigations, arrests and prosecutions. The corruption is still there, but
it's becoming politically incorrect. Meanwhile, everyone is getting more
patriotic. It's no longer cool to take orders from Iran. So Muqtada Al Sadr,
and his Mahdi army, are becoming less a tool of Iran, and more a mainstream
Iraqi political movement. Sadr is even sitting down and cutting deals with
Sunni Arab politicians. At the same time, the Mahdi Army is being purged of
factions that don't go along with the new peace and reconciliation approach.
Those radical factions are still killing Sunni Arabs, while Sunni Arabs and al
Qaeda continue to slaughter Shia Arabs. This is not popular with Iraqis in
general, and the terrorists are increasingly seen as a public menace that all
Iraqis must unite to destroy.
Iraqis are really getting fed up with all the
violence. To that end, the police are getting more cooperation from civilians,
who are reporting more terrorist activity. But civilians are more concerned
with criminal activity, especially armed robbery and kidnapping. The gangs that
grew to power (as enforcers and business partners) under Saddam, are still
thriving. This is especially true in Sunni Arab areas. But the gangs are major
victims when American and Iraqi troops come in, to clean out Sunni Arab
neighborhoods and towns. The new tactic, of coming, and keeping American troops
in the neighborhood until the Iraqi police thinks it's safe, has brought
unaccustomed peace and quiet to Sunni Arab areas in the Baghdad suburbs, and
Anbar province to the west. Anbar has become so quiet that journalists embedded
with American troops there, are leaving for more newsworthy areas. That may be
increasingly difficult. The Sunni Arab tribes closer to Baghdad are now signing
deals with the government, to join in the fight against the al Qaeda and Sunni
Arab terrorist groups. Meanwhile, the terrorists are spending more of their time
trying to keep their Sunni Arab base in line. The "red on red"
battles between Sunni Arabs, that U.S. Marines first noted two years ago, has
increased month by month. But as long as Sunni Arabs can continue to set off
bombs in Baghdad for the foreign media, the decline of the Sunni Arab terror
campaign will go largely unreported. What does get reported is the high
American casualty rate, which has averaged 3-4 dead per day over the last two
months. This is because American troops are increasingly going into terrorist
dominated neighborhoods, and finding that these guys generally fight to the
death. It's like World War II in the Pacific all over again. Except that the
American casualties are much lower. In the final battles against the fanatical
Japanese, one American died for every three Japanese troops killed. But in
Iraq, the ratio is closer to ten dead terrorists for every dead American. The
Iraqis are not as well trained and disciplined as the Japanese were back then,
and todays U.S. troops are better equipped and trained. But it would be better,
in many ways, if the Iraqi security forces would take care of these Iraqi and
foreign fanatics. While the Iraqis can
do it, they don't mind letting the Americans have at it. For all the Iraqi
complaints about Americans killing Iraqis, that doesn't apply to Iraqis who are
shooting back.