November 30, 2007:
The war is moving north, where several hundred terrorists have fled, and
set up bases. However, Iraqi civilians are not as terrified of the terrorists
anymore. Even Sunni Arab civilians will pass on tips about Sunni Arab
terrorists arriving in their neighborhood or village. Cell phone service, and
use, has spread so much that there is hardly anywhere that does not have a few
cell phone owners. The army and police are more aggressive in letting everyone
know what numbers to call. The cops are competent and reliable enough that, if
you do tip them off about some terrorists, a raid will follow. The Iraqi Army
has come a long way as well, with two large scale (several Iraqi divisions)
operations in the north in the past week. This is a big deal, because each
division has to move around several thousand troops, coordinate with several
brigades of American troops, and do lots of stuff at the right place and the
right time. All that requires trained staff officers to plan, and competent
NCOs and officers to carry out. The Iraqi troops also appear more sure of
themselves. American soldiers who are back for their second or third tour
notice it the most, because Iraqi soldiers were not nearly as impressive just a
year or two ago.
The large number of raids in, and around, the
northern oil fields, are meant to prevent any terror bombing offensives in
Kirkuk, Mosul or the nearby oil fields. In the past week, several hundred al
Qaeda and Sunni Arab terrorist operators or supporters have been arrested. Lots
of weapons, bomb making equipment and documents have been taken as well. The
terrorists are still not able to mount major operations. Even the use of
roadside bombs is way down, as are U.S. casualties, which have not been this
low since 2004. But as long as cash and volunteers are still getting into the
country, it's possible for the Sunni Arab terror groups to rebuild themselves,
and resume the mass murder attacks. Meanwhile, Iranian al Quds (special
terrorist support forces) operators are still in Iraq, but the political
situation back in Iran is fluid. There are still some Iranian leaders who want
al Quds to get some bloodshed going in Iraq, but these leaders have less and
less clout of late.
A recent bombing in a Baghdad pet market, which
appeared to be the work of al Qaeda, turned out to be some Shia fanatics trying
to rekindle large scale violence between Sunni and Shia Arabs. This Shia group
also had some help from Iranian special forces. Thus at least one faction in
the Iranian government is not happy about peace breaking out in Iraq. To that
end, the Iraqi government has begun negotiations with the U.S. over a long term
relationship. What the Iraqis want is a long term American military presence
("50,000 troops" has been tossed about), and guarantees of Iraqi
independence. The Iraqi Shia Arabs, who now dominate the government (because
they are over 60 percent of the population), want to keep the Iranians, Saudis
and Turks out. American troops can guarantee that. It's unlikely the U.S. would
agree to keep 50,000 in Iraq (at the new bases built out in the countryside).
Even if Iraqi kicked in to cover the costs (as South Korea, Japan and Germany
have long done for their American garrisons), it would still be a
"hardship post" with troops largely confined to bases. This is
generally the case with American troops in Moslem countries. However, the
number of troops is negotiable, and would probably be closer to 10,000. All you
need is a "tripwire force" (attack it, and a lot of U.S. reinforcements
will promptly arrive). The U.S. will also be looking for guarantees that the
deal will only be good as long as a real democracy exists in Iraq. No coups, no
phony elections and "president-for-life" crap. Iraq will still have
plenty of problems. There are many Sunni Arabs who will never give up the idea
that the Sunni Arab minority should be running the country. Similarly, there
will always be Kurds who want northern Iraq to be an independent nation (named
Kurdistan). Even in the Shia community, there is a minority that wants a
religious dictatorship similar to the one in Iran. Iraq will remain a rough
neighborhood for some time to come.