February 14, 2008:
Years of U.S. intel
work are paying off, as more and more senior terrorist leaders are being
identified, and found. This has caused most of the al Qaeda leader ships to
flee the country, taking their cash with them. The U.S. is putting additional
pressure on Syria to give up terrorists who flee in that direction. The Iraqi
Sunni Arab terrorists groups, who comprise over 90 percent of the people
fighting the government, and making attacks on U.S. troops, are also in big
trouble. The leaders of these groups are hoping for some kind of amnesty before
they get caught. Capture can be delayed for a while by bribing the local police
and army units. Meanwhile, the terrorists are suffering a severe cash flow
problem. The al Qaeda contributions are gone, and most of the money coming from
foreigners has dried up. The Iraqi "resistance" is seen as broken, and no one
wants to support a lost cause. Being on the run has made it difficult to
organize the roadside bomb teams. The use of these weapons has declined so much
(over 90 percent in some areas) that U.S. commanders fear their troops are
starting to get sloppy, after being on the streets for weeks without
encountering a single IED.
Meanwhile, the parliament is fighting
it out over how much amnesty to give the Sunni Arab terrorists. The U.S. is
pushing for more, many radical Shia groups demand a mass roundup of suspected Sunni
Arab terrorists and Saddam era enforcers. While the Iraqi politicians may be
corrupt, they do have to listen to their constituents, and most of these voters
want Sunni Arab blood. The parliament finally passed laws meant to bring the
Sunni Arabs back into the family. But the bad feelings will last generations,
and will explode into murders and lurid stories (of past atrocities) in the
next few years.
The corruption that is so
characteristic of Iraq, works against the terrorists as well. Iraqi media is
full of stories of former terrorists complaining of betrayal and cheating by
their fellow killers. It's always been about money, and the police and army
have been able to disrupt a lot of the criminal activity (theft, extortion,
kidnapping) that the terror groups used to fund the terrorism. It was often
difficult to determine if some guys were gangsters moonlighting as Islamic
terrorists, or the other way around. The reputation for being an Islamic
terrorist was useful, as it tagged you as a real badass. But in the last year,
it too often tagged you as one of the usual suspects for the increasingly
efficient police and army commands. Most holy warriors have decided that terrorism
is too dangerous. Those that could, just became full time crooks, other went
straight, and some joined over a million other Sunni Arabs and fled the country.
The remaining terrorists have concentrated their attacks on Sunni Arab leaders,
especially those who recently supported terrorism. Thus the suicide bombs are
still killing civilians, but wealthier and more powerful ones.
Speaking of corruption, Russia has
forgiven $12 billion in debt, for weapons and military equipment bought by
Saddam, in return for the government recognizing oil field development
contracts signed by Saddam in the months before he was overthrown. This gives
Russian companies entry to the lucrative Persian Gulf oil business. The
Russians have no qualms about bribery and paying off government officials. That
makes them popular in Iraq. The corruption if often quite macabre. For example,
the investigation of a recent suicide bombing, using two mentally ill girls as
unknowing bombers, led to a mental hospital. The director of the hospital took
bribes to allow the terrorists to go through patient records, to find women who
could be used for suicide bombing attacks (women are less likely to be
searched, or even suspected.)
There are still thousands of Sunni Arab
terrorists in action, and nearly as many Shia Arab bad guys waiting for their
chance to resume killing Sunni Arabs. The U.S. wants to round up as many of
these guys, especially the leaders and technical experts, as possible, while
the entire terrorism infrastructure is in disarray.