Iraq: Update September 2024

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September 25, 2024: Iraq remains a war zone, although not as violent as in the past. The main source of violence is Iran as well as Islamic terrorist groups that continue operating in the more remote parts of Iraq. This includes the northeastern Duhok Mountains and the Turkish border areas where Turkish airstrikes continue to hit Turkish rebels and Islamic terrorists with bases in Iraq. Iraq protests these Turkish attacks on Iraqi territory but the Turks are powerful enough to ignore the Iraqi government's criticism. The Turkish attacks are confined to border areas.

Iraq continues to have problems with ISIL (Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant) and its predecessor al Qaeda. Iraqis created ISIL, helped create al Qaeda, and there continue to be plenty of Iraqi men willing to join these organizations and die for the cause of Islamic terrorism.

Despite the late 2017 declaration that ISIL was defeated, the Islamic terror group remains active in northern and Western Iraq. ISIL no longer controls large areas of Iraq but is a problem because of its violence, extortion, and disorder in several provinces north of Baghdad. It took four years of effort, several hundred billion dollars to pay for an expanded military, battle damage and economic losses plus over 100,000 Iraqi lives, to kill at least 20,000 Islamic terrorists and eliminate ISIL control of Iraqi territory. That effort created other problems, and opportunities. Iran offered help and was allowed to organize, train and often lead in combat over 100,000 Iraqi, largely Shia, militiamen in what was and still is the PMF (Popular Mobilization Forces). Most Iraqis, including most Iraqi Shia, who are about 60 percent of the population, feared an Iran inspired coup but by early 2018 senior Shia clerics in Iraq and Iran agreed that the militias should stay out of politics. Iran’s government was not consulted on this decision and a minority of pro-Iran Iraqis still want an Iran-style religious dictatorship. National elections in 2021 revealed much less support for Iran, despite increased threats and financial promises Iran could not keep. The 2021 elections were mainly about doing something about widespread corruption and mismanagement of the economy. A new and hopefully more effective government emerged from this in 2022 and cracked down on corruption and Iranian interference.

The other Arab oil states in the region, all run by Sunnis, offered peace and investment and the new Iraqi government accepted the offer, even if those Arabs were establishing diplomatic, economic and military relations with Israel. Iran responded with a failed assassination attack on the Iraqi prime minister plus rocket and mortar attacks on the American embassy and the remaining U.S. troops. Most Iraqis want some Americans to stay, more economic activity with Arab neighbors and an end to Iranian meddling in Iraq. American soldiers are still in Iraq, as is Iranian interference.

 

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