May 8,
2008: The Palestinians are fragmenting
into dozens of mutually antagonistic factions. The new West Bank police,
organized by Fatah, has found themselves battling clan, political and religious
militias. Hamas continues to support attacks on Israel, which comes down to
several crude Kassam rockets fired into southern Israel each day, plus several
attempts to attack Israeli troops guarding the border between Gaza and Israel. Hamas
continues to insist that, long range, they will destroy Israel. Because of
that, Israeli military leaders do not want to have any ceasefire with Hamas,
believing it will be used to pile up more rockets and fortifications for their
next major attack on Israel. But the U.S., Europeans and Arab nations want a
cease fire, so the Israelis continue to negotiate. Everyone understands that a
ceasefire would not be an absolute halt to violence. Several Palestinian
terrorist groups would refuse to participate in any ceasefire, and the Israelis
would go after key terrorist personnel after such attacks.
Since
these peace talks began six months ago, nearly 500 people, most of them
Palestinians, have died in terrorist attacks and counter-terror operations. Currently,
the UN is demanding that Israel resume fuel shipments to Gaza, despite Hamas
attacks on the fuel transfer gate and facilities. Hamas is using the fuel
shortage to keep their security forces moving, while denying mobility to the
anti-Hamas groups in Gaza.
More Arab
diplomats are privately telling the Palestinians (both Hamas and Fatah) that the
Arab world is fed up with Palestinian squabbling, corruption and general
inability to move forward. This is not expected to change anything, and avoids
the fact that the Arab nations caused many of the Palestinians problems by not
allowing Palestinians to migrate to other Arab nations after 1947 (the
Palestinians could only stay as refugees). Israeli traditionalists see all this
as an opportunity to take control of more land in the West Bank (which they see
as part of "Greater Israel") and East Jerusalem (traditionally the Arab side of
town). The Palestinians insist on removing all Israelis from areas they have
moved into since 1967 (when Israel
conquered the West Bank). That is not likely to happen because the small
religious parties in the Israeli parliament are crucial for forming a
government.
In
Lebanon, Hezbollah has become increasingly violent, using groups of masked men
to attack similarly outfitted pro-government (Sunni and Christian) gangs.
Neither side is willing to spark another civil war, yet both sides are becoming
more aggressive.
