June 6,
2008: Hamas continues to try new
tactics. The latest one is to organize a large (several hundred, or over a
thousand) demonstration and march it towards the security fence or one of the
crossings. That provides cover for gunmen or suicide bombers. The Israelis
have, so far, been able to break up these groups at a distance, using tear gas
and rubber bullets. Meanwhile, the Kassam rockets and mortar shells keep coming
across the border from Gaza, with the same lack of success. Israel has constantly
improved its counter-fire tactics, and is killing, or discouraging, more of
those firing the rockets and mortars. Attacks continue on terrorist leaders and
technicians.
Meanwhile,
Hamas is finding that running a dictatorship has its disadvantages. In a word,
Hamas is becoming less popular. At least half the population would like to see
Fatah back in power. The Hamas leadership does not want to risk another
election, which it believes it would lose. While the Hamas "destroy Israel at
all costs" line is popular enough, most Palestinians are more practical, and
just want a job, and maybe electricity and regular water supplies. Hamas has
been unable to supply any of this. But Hamas, and its terrorist allies, have
installed a police state, complete with secret police and torture chambers.
These are kept active looking for Israeli spies. The informant network in Gaza
provides Israel with information about Hamas leaders and their locations. Hamas
knows this because Israel keeps killing these people. So the search for the
Israeli informants is constant. Meanwhile, Hamas punished (with demotions,
dismissals and short jail terms) 38 of its own policemen for firing on a Fatah
demonstration (containing several hundred thousand people). Even Fatah realized
this attack was a big mistake, and is trying to recover some of the lost good
will.
June 1,
2008: At the Lebanese border, Israel
exchanged a Hizbollah spy for the bones of five Israeli soldiers killed in the
2006 war. Meanwhile, Hizbollah insisted that it does not want to run Lebanon,
it just wants to insure that Lebanon does not interfere with operations against
Israel. Unfortunately, if Hizbollah pushes it too far again, and there's
another war with Israel, all of Lebanon will suffer. Hizbollah also faces the
prospect of a two front war, as non-Shia Lebanese factions might cut a deal to
attack Hizbollah at the same time Israel attacks. Although this is seen as
absurd by Arab nationalists, Saudi Arabia, and other Sunni Arab states
(especially in the Gulf) are pushing for a united front against the encroachments
of the Iran-backed Shia Moslem forces. It comes down to this. Who are the Sunni
Arabs more afraid of, Israel or Iran? As the old joke goes, if Sunni Arabs are
confronted by an Israeli and an Iranian, and have only one bullet, who do they
shoot. Business or pleasure?
