October 11, 2024: Libya has been chaotic since dictator Muammar Gaddafi was ousted from office and killed in 2011. That was followed by a persistent civil war that continues. Eastern Libya is controlled by the LNA (Libyan National Army) while western Libya is run by the Government of National Accord (GNA). This was further complicated in 202o when Turkey sent several thousand troops and dozens of drones to protect its illegal offshore natural gas and oil claims granted by the GNA in exchange for protection from its LNA rival. Turkish troops will remain in the country at least until 2026. This continued presence has been a major obstacle to national elections and a peaceful resolution to the eleven-year civil war.

In early 2020, Turkey reinforced the GNA, a UN and Moslem Brotherhood-supported government that struggled to gain widespread national support and had problems inside Tripoli where rival militias often fought each other. The Turks refuse to send troops to pacify Tripoli and get the militias off the streets. The Turks believe that would lead to endless urban guerrilla war as the militias continued to operate while attacking the Turkish troops seeking to maintain order.

Eastern Libya is more orderly because the last elected Libyan government, called the House of Representatives, governs under the protection of the LNA run by general Haftar and his sons. The LNA is run like a military organization with discipline and regular supplies, plus medical care for the wounded and proper burial for those killed.

The GNA, confined to Tripoli and Misrata, has been under threat from the LNA, led by a local military commander. The LNA, known for its disciplined and capable soldiers, has been systematically eliminating rival factions, especially Islamic radical groups. By early 2019, the LNA launched an offensive on Tripoli, pushing back the militias fighting for control of neighborhoods in the city. These militias, many with Islamic aspirations, resisted fiercely to protect their autonomy and criminal enterprises.

Despite efforts for peace, the UN criticized the LNA's actions while overlooking Turkey's violations of the UN arms embargo by supplying weapons and military advisors to the GNA. By the end of 2019, Turkey was on the brink of deploying combat troops and warships to Libya as part of an effort to prevent the LNA from reuniting Libya. The LNA eventually agreed to a ceasefire and national elections, but the Turkish military and Syrian Arab mercenaries continue to occupy positions in Libya, with no plans for withdrawal. Meanwhile, Egypt is increasingly concerned about the Turkish military presence on its border, a situation unprecedented for centuries.

The GNA is not eager for a free and fair election because most Libyans believe the GNA is affiliated with militias in Tripoli and Misrata to the east. An elected government is expected to impose order on chaotic Tripoli. Turkey and Russia, which have oil development contracts in Libya, both believe an honest government would be bad for their oil and natural gas extraction and export deals.

Libya's economic landscape mirrors its turbulent military situation, characterized by instability and foreign dependencies. The prolonged conflict has severely disrupted the country's economic activities, especially its vital oil industry, which has historically been the backbone of the Libyan economy.

Frequent clashes between rival factions and the control of key oil facilities have led to inconsistent oil production and exportation. Although Libya holds significant oil reserves, the volatility in production has hampered consistent revenue generation. The inability to manage and distribute oil revenues effectively has further exacerbated the economic hardships faced by the Libyan population.

Furthermore, foreign interventions have complicated economic recovery efforts. Countries like Turkey, Russia, and the UAE (United Arab Emirates) have vested interests in Libya's resources, influencing economic policies and further entrenching divisions. The ongoing presence of Turkish troops and mercenaries adds a layer of complexity to economic stabilization efforts, with various factions and foreign supporters vying for control over lucrative resources.

Libya's infrastructure has also suffered extensively due to the conflict. Essential services such as healthcare, education, and public utilities are in disarray, contributing to the declining quality of life for many Libyans. The rebuilding of infrastructure will require significant foreign investments and stable local governance, both of which are currently lacking.

The current military and economic situations in Libya are chaotic. No one is prepared to pacify the country for the good of all Libyans. Turkey has sent troops and warships while Russia and the UAE supply weapons and equipment to helpful factions. The rival factions are deadlocked and that means Libya remains divided and chaotic. Libya is a difficult country for firms trying to operate international oil extraction and export operations. To make that work, lots of money is spent on bribes for the various local militias seizing control of oil facilities and not leaving until they are paid. Libya was always a corrupt place and the deceased dictator Gaddafi kept the country peaceful while slowly improving the economy for most Libyans. Peace in Libya made Gaddafi confident enough to intervene in Chad and contribute to rebel groups in Morocco, South Africa and elsewhere. Gaddafi sought to maintain good relations with the United States, but that became difficult after the terror attacks in the United States during 2001 that left thousands of Americans dead. Gaddafi was not involved but the U.S. was wary of his intentions after 2001.

The Russians are seen as reliable allies of Libya, even though it was Russia which supplied Libya with most of its weapons throughout the Kaddafi era from the 1960s to 2011 and are now delivering fewer, but more modern ones, like ATGMs (anti-tank guided missiles) and portable anti-aircraft missiles to bring down UAVs. The Turks are seen as a former imperial overlord trying to make a comeback. The Turks also ignore the fact that most Libyans oppose the Islamic conservative militias that the Turks support and see the Turks as more of a threat than the Russians or Arabs who are backing the LNA.

Turkey is threatening war with its neighbor Greece because of overlapping claims to offshore waters that might contain lucrative natural gas deposits. Turkey is also at odds with the United States in Syria. All these foreign adventures are an effort to distract Turkish voters from the current economic recession they are suffering from as well as their government's continuing suppression of internal criticism of the government.