March 9,2008:
Last April's elections were marked
by violence (by armed gangs supporting candidates) and fraud. The
anti-corruption movement had the support of the courts, and dozens of those
elections have been challenged, many successfully. The political gangs have
backed off, not willing to test the resolve of the police and army. Seven of 36
state governor elections have been overturned because of vote rigging.
Up north, Islamic
radicals are on the defensive, as polio cases declined 75 percent in the past
year, the result of the vaccination campaign. Islamic radicals had, over the
past few years, gotten many conservative clergy to preach against allowing
children to get polio vaccinations. This interrupted a world wide effort to
wipe out polio. Like smallpox (which was wiped out in a similar campaign three
decades ago) the polio virus can only survive in human hosts. If enough vulnerable people
(mostly kids) are vaccinated against polio, then polio has nowhere to survive,
and joins smallpox as an extinct disease. The Islamic campaign against
vaccinations (which were accused of being a secret plan to sterilize female
children) caused a resurgence of polio cases worldwide, and a major loss of
credibility for the Islamic radicals. The vaccinations resumed last year, after
vigorous efforts by Nigerian politicians, and the sharp drop in polio cases, is
yet another setback for the Islamic conservatives who thrive on anti-Western
paranoia.
The IMF (International
Monetary Fund) has come out and stated what most Nigerians already know, that Nigeria
has wasted the first three decades worth of oil income. Corruption and
ineffective spending decisions, up through the late 1990s, left the country
with little or no infrastructure (roads, water works, power plants), and half
the population still living in poverty. While the corruption has declined, poor
spending habits persist. Using government "do-nothing" jobs as patronage (which
is actually a form of corruption), is considered a useful make-work program,
and is difficult to go after.
Attempts
to negotiate a peace deal with militants
in the Niger Delta have failed because the various tribal militants cannot
agree on who represents who. Because the delta militants are based on criminal
gangs (whose main source of income is stealing oil, robbery and kidnapping),
their priority, if they wish to maintain their fighting strength, is making
money. Fighting for "the people" is all well and good, but if you don't meet
the payroll, you have no one to do the fighting. The war in the delta goes on
quietly, with the government building up security that the gangs are having a
harder time breaching. The gangs are getting more violent, as it becomes more
difficult to make a dishonest dollar. Kidnappings, for example, are way down. While
150 foreigners (mainly oil technicians) were kidnapped last year. So far this
year, only one has been taken (and quickly released.)
Royal
Dutch Shell, a major oil producer in the delta, has recovered from attacks on
its production and pipeline facilities, which had shut down a lot of oil
shipments over the last month. While you still hear gunfire and explosions
around oil facilities, these now tend to be failed attacks, or the sound of
army and police raids on the gangs.