December 8, 2007: The Niger
River Delta has become heavily armed. The country, as a whole, is believed to
contain over seven million illegal weapons, and a disproportionate number of
them are in the delta. Anything connected with the oil business (facilities,
boats, trucks) is accompanied by armed men. This has reduced the violence, but
not eliminated it. The gangs just do the math and hit targets with enough
manpower to, hopefully, overwhelm the security. But the sailors, soldiers and
police are less likely to flee when attacked, and the bandits don't fight to
the last man when their attacks initially fail. Usually the criminals accept
defeat, and run away if they meet resistance.
December 6, 2007: The
government has signed a peace deal with twelve smaller resistance groups in the
Niger Delta. The largest separatist group, MEND, was not part of this deal. The
problem is a lack of trust. For over four decades, the oil money has been going
to about twenty percent of the population, leaving most of the rest worse off
today than they were half a century ago, before the oil was discovered. The
people in the Niger Delta are up in arms because most of them have not
benefited from the oil production, but have suffered from the oil spills and
other disruptions that accompany oil drilling and shipping. Groups like MEND
are no longer willing to take the word of government officials that the Niger
Delta will get more money, but want direct control over a share of the local
oil. Even then, the lack of civil society (fair and corruption-free government
administration) is still something only a minority of Nigerians buy into. Most
people still believe in grabbing all you can when the opportunity presents
itself.
December 5, 2007: While the
violence in the oil producing areas has shut down daily production of 900,000
barrels (worth about $30 billion a year), Nigeria has still been able to use
excess capacity to continue shipping its agreed OPEC production of 2.1 million
barrels a day.
December 3, 2007: Discipline
has been increased in the army, especially for officers. The latest round of promotions
were touted as fair and honest, and not just favoring friends, or someone
offering a bribe. Without naming names, the army announced it was holding
officers responsible for the loss of weapons in some areas. It's been widely
known, for years, that officers at some bases were willing to "lose
weapons" and sell them out the back gate. The government ignored this
until recently. But too many bandits and rebels were being caught with weapons
that could be traced back to the military, and voters were losing confidence in
the military, and politicians who looked the other way. It remains to be seen
if the current enthusiasm for cleaning up the mess, makes a difference.
