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May 4, 2002
   
Make that four. On May 3 a fourth Madagascan province (Mahajanga) declared independence from Madagascar. Majajanga joins three other rebel provinces, Antsiranana (declared independence April 30), Toamasina (May 1), and Toliara (May 2). All four are led by governors loyal to Ratsiraka. The two other provinces, Fianarantsoa and Antananarivo, are loyal to Ravalomanana. Where will this lead? Civil war is a real possibility a very real possibility. Another scenario has a new confederation of Madagascan states emerging, with Ratsiraka as president of some and Ravalomanana as president of the others. On May 2, Ratsiraka issued another statement rejecting the decision that awarded Ravalomanana the presidency and demanded that Madagascar have a new transition government.