September10, 2008:
The new, aggressive, Russia
has generated some interesting reactions. Initially, most of Russia's neighbors
were reluctant to criticize, or sanction, Russia for invading and dismembering
Georgia. But within a few weeks, new reactions emerged. The Russian invasion
has triggered an arms race among Russian neighbors. Sweden, for example,
despite its decades of neutrality, and recent aggressive defense budget cuts,
is planning to build up its military capabilities. The Baltic States want more
NATO (and especially American) troops stationed on their territory (to further
ensure reinforcements if the Russians invade.) Ukraine is openly planning to revamp
its military defenses.
If Russia
believed its Georgian operation would discourage its neighbors from joining
NATO (to gain protection from Russian aggression), it didn't work. But Russia
is not discouraged, especially since the Georgian operation is enormously
popular inside Russia. The events in Georgia are interpreted quite differently
inside Russia, where some politicians see this as an opportunity for the rest
of Europe to join with Russia in an anti-U.S. coalition. Russians really
believe this stuff, partly because the government has, in the last few years,
taken control of most mass media in the country. Russia also has a new set of
"satellite states" (Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan,
Tajikistan and Uzbekistan) who all expressed approval of the "peacekeeping
operation in Georgia." These Russian allies are all nations that were
formerly part of the Soviet Union, and are still dependent on Russia for
economic or political aid.
Meanwhile,
the U.S. has provided Georgia with a billion dollars of economic and military
aid. This includes NATO sending technicians and equipment to link Georgia's air
defense radars with the NATO system. That means anything the Russian Air Force
does over Georgia, will immediately show up in NATO air defense command
centers. The U.S. is also believed sending new anti-aircraft weapons (most
likely Stingers.) This aggressiveness is partly in response to Russian sales of
air defense systems to Syria and Iran. The new Cold War is heating up.
The pressure
from Western Europe, UN and the U.S. has resulted in Russia saying it will pull
all of its troops out of Georgia before the end of the month, and never turn
off the natural gas supplies for Western Europe. These troops are mainly
manning roadblocks (where even UN aid trucks are being halted) and teams of
troops who go around destroying Georgian military equipment. Russia also announced
that it would station permanent garrisons (of nearly 8,000 troops) in Abkhazia
and South Ossetia (which Russia now recognizes as independent of Georgia, and
sort-of part of Russia). Russia is also looking to build more natural gas
pipelines, so that it has other customers for all that gas (all of it goes to
Western Europe now, which is why Russia can promise to not cut off the supply
to the only customer for the stuff.)
September 9,
2008: Although Russia deported 150,000
illegal migrants last year, it's estimated that there are at least ten million
people living illegally in Russia. Most of these people have come from less
prosperous neighbors, looking for employment in Russia's booming economy. These
migrants will often find help from legal Russian residents belonging to the same
ethnic group, as during 70 years of Soviet rule, there was a lot of population
movement between the Slavic Russian heartland, and the non-Slav borderlands
(which became 14 new nations when the Soviet Union dissolved in 1991).