June 10,2008:
While the Islamic terrorist
violence continues, at a slower pace, in the south, most Thais are more
concerned with the possibility of civil war. The new prime minister, Samak
Sundaravej, is an ally of the deposed (by a 2006 army coup) prime minister, Thaksin
Shinawatra. The aristocracy, generals and urban elites did not like Thaksin, but
underestimated how broad and determined his support was. The coup was basically
the capital versus the rest of the country, and the capital lost. Thais are
very adroit in these matters, which is why the junta was simply able to hold an
election, see which way the political winds were blowing, and step aside. But
the royalist coalition rewrote the constitution in 2007, to favor their
interests, and are opposed to another constitutional rewrite that would erase
those changes. All this is being backed up by large demonstrations in the
capital, along with threats of another military coup (which the generals deny
is in the works.) It's basically a battle between a minority (the traditional
elites of the aristocracy, the military and the urban educated professionals)
and the majority (newly rich businessmen who know how to get the votes of the
majority of less affluent Thais living outside the capital.) Most Thais believe
that democracy should be given a chance to work things out, but a vocal
minority in the capital does not agree, and they have powerful allies.