December 22, 2007:
It's not been a good year for Islamic
terrorism. In Iraq, al Qaeda was crushed when the principal al Qaeda
supporters, the Sunni Arab minority, turned on the terrorists. Same thing
happened, to a lesser extent, in Afghanistan, where some of the pro-Taliban
tribes turned anti-al Qaeda, and killed hundreds of al Qaeda fighters. In North
Africa, defeated Algerian terrorist groups joined al Qaeda, and tried to revive
their revolution. This meant adopting the al Qaeda suicide bomber tactics.
While al Qaeda was able to do more than one bombing a day (at their peak) in
Iraq, and several a week in Afghanistan, the Algerian branch averaged less than
one a month. These attacks grabbed headlines, but the public reaction was all
wrong, for the terrorists. The average Algerian saw dead Moslem women and
children, and became even more hostile to Islamic terrorism.
Saudi Arabia, which used to be (at
least on September 11, 2001) where al Qaeda had the most fans, has turned quite
hostile to the group. A recent poll showed only ten percent of Saudis approve
of al Qaeda, although 15 percent have high regard for Osama bin Laden. At the
same time, 88 percent approved the governments counter-terrorism campaign. What
this demonstrates is that, while many, if not most, Arabs approve of terror
attacks on the West (which is popularly believed to be the cause of all the
Arab world's ills, but that's another subject), once they have Islamic
terrorists operating in their own country, they turn on the terrorists. This
has been going on since, well, forever. Some recent examples were in the 1990s,
when Islamic terrorism failed in Egypt and Algeria. Now the tactic has failed
in Iraq and Afghanistan, and is a flop at making a comeback in Algeria.
Worse yet, for the terrorists, there
have been no attacks in the U.S. or Europe. There has been a lot of Islamic
terrorist activity in Europe, but that's mainly because young Moslem men in
Europe have romanticized Islamic terrorists and created a popular new indoor
sport. This consists of frequenting pro-terrorist web sites (there are over
5,000 of them out there), and sometimes gathering in person to talk about engaging
in Islamic terrorist acts. Counter-terror organizations in major European
countries believe that there are thousands (perhaps over 10,000) of these
wannabe terrorists who might get it together and actually attempt an attack.
Al Qaeda is trying to shift resources
to Pakistan, where it believes, in cooperation with some pro-Taliban Pushtun and
Baluchi tribes, it can survive. Al Qaeda also believes that it has a shot at
overthrowing the Pakistani government, and gaining control of nuclear weapons.
This is a fantasy, as less than 20 percent of Pakistanis support Islamic
radicalism, and there are many factions. But al Qaeda is running out of
options. In the last seven hears it went from triumph (the September 11, 2001 attacks)
to one disaster after another. Afghanistan was lost by the end of 2001, and operations
in Iraq turned the entire Islamic world against al Qaeda. Pakistan has been a mixed
success. Al Qaeda's usual suicide bomber tactics quickly turned most of the
population against the terrorists, but some of the Pushtun and Baluchi tribes
along the Afghan border kept the faith. This has changed in the past year, as
some of those tribes have tired of the foreigners (al Qaeda) and gone to war
with the terrorists. Despite all that, and major army offensives this year against
Islamic radicals in the tribal areas, al Qaeda's position in Pakistan is
precarious. Years of al Qaeda attacks on senior Pakistani officials, and
suicide bombings that have killed hundreds of civilians, has turned the
government and population against the terrorists. There are still terrorist
supporters, but they are a minority, and have to be alert to getting turned in
by a neighbor, or even family.
The al Qaeda leadership is still hiding
out in the Afghan border area, and the declining al Qaeda support increases the
chances of someone going for the huge (up to $50 million) bounties on some of
these guys. Ironically, al Qaeda's biggest hope is in Europe, where alienated
young Moslem men, many of whom were born in Europe, of immigrant parents (or
grandparents), and who have not witnessed
terrorism up close, can still afford to fantasize about it. Most of these guys
are all talk and no action, but the al Qaeda leadership, and the police, know
that the odds favor some of these kids getting motivated enough to pull off an
successful attack. In time, another five years or so, such terrorist
aspirations will no longer be fashionable, and no longer a threat. But that is
then, and this is now.