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The Second Artillery Corps Versus the USN
   Next Article → SOMALIA: Pirates And Terrorists Demand More
April 27, 2011: The Chinese Second Artillery Corps, spread over several provinces, has been expanding over the last few years. This includes adding two brigades apparently armed with the long rumored Chinese anti-ship ballistic missile, the DF-21D. This gives the Second Artillery Corps ten DF-21 brigades, plus brigades with several other types of missiles. Each of the DF-21 missile brigades has six missile battalions (with two mobile launchers each), two maintenance and repair battalions, a site management battalion, a signal battalion and an electronic countermeasures (ECM) battalion. The DF-21D is mainly intended for use against the USN (U.S. Navy), particularly the aircraft carriers.

The other eight DF-21 brigades in the Second Artillery Corps are the older models. The basic DF-21 is a 15 ton, two stage, solid fuel missile that is 10.7 meters (35 feet) long and 140cm (4.6 feet) in diameter. Range varies (from 1,700-3,000 kilometers) depending on model. While the 500-2,000 kg (.5-2 ton) warhead usually contains a nuclear weapon, it is believed that China also has a conventional warhead. This would be used against targets in Taiwan, since the DF-21, as a longer range ballistic missile, comes down on the target faster than the thousand or so shorter range ballistic missiles aimed at Taiwan. That means that the DS-21 is too fast for the Pac-3 anti-missile missiles Taiwan is installing around crucial installations.

Meanwhile, as far as anyone knows, or will admit, the complete DF-21D system has not yet been tested. There may have been some tests over the last two years, and all the components of the system are apparently present and working. There are photos of DF-21Ds on TELs (transporter erector launcher vehicles), and announcements of new units activated last year. There have been other indicators as well.

For example, two years ago, China launched another "remote sensing" satellite, joining two others in a similar orbit. These three birds are moving in formation, at an altitude of 600 kilometers, across the Pacific. Equipped with either radar (SAR, or synthetic aperture radar) or digital cameras, these three birds can scan the ocean for ships, even though the Chinese say their purpose is purely scientific. A typical SAR can produce photo quality images at different resolutions. At medium resolution (3 meters) the radar covers an area 40x40 kilometers. Low resolution (20 meters) covers 100x100 kilometers. This three satellite Chinese posse looks suspiciously like a military ocean surveillance system. This is the missing link for the rumored Chinese ballistic missile system for attacking American aircraft carriers.

For nearly six years, there have been stories (in the West) about how China was working on targeting systems for its ballistic missiles, that would enable them to seek out and hit aircraft carriers. Such sensors would use infrared (heat seeking) technology for their final approach. This sort of thing had been discussed for decades, but China appeared (according to pundits and headline hungry media) to be putting together tactics, and missile systems, that could make this all happen. The key was having multiple sensor systems, either satellites, submarines or maritime patrol aircraft, that could find the general location of the carrier, before launching the ballistic missile (like a DF-21, with a range of 1,700 kilometers). Those sensors appear to be operational, as do the other elements needed to make the DF-21D work.

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Colonel Korg       4/27/2011 12:01:03 PM
Since a US Carrier is never without it's accompanying Carrier Battle Group and those ships have the Aegis SM-2 and SM-3 ABM's, how do the Chi-Comms expect to score a hit on a carrier? The US Navy has already proved they can take out incoming ICBM's and IRBM's. The DF-21 has about an snowball's chance in hell of getting through.
 
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bikebrains       4/27/2011 12:02:39 PM
"The basic DF-21 is a 15 ton, two stage, solid fuel missile that is 1.7 meters (35 feet) long and 140cm (4.6 feet) in diameter."  The facts related to the length of the missile need to be revised.  > id="content">  says Length [meters]10.7  .
 
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YelliChink       4/27/2011 12:48:12 PM

Since a US Carrier is never without it's accompanying Carrier Battle Group and those ships have the Aegis SM-2 and SM-3 ABM's, how do the Chi-Comms expect to score a hit on a carrier? The US Navy has already proved they can take out incoming ICBM's and IRBM's. The DF-21 has about an snowball's chance in hell of getting through.




Combined arms approach, just like how the USN will kill any heavily defended targets. Once the CBG is targeted, they will throw anything and everythign in their inventory. Since their surface combatants will likely to be killed before entering within 2000km of CBG, their subs and naval aviation will be employed as missile launchers while sending those DF-21D simultaneously.
The problem is, they don't seem to have that kind of capacity to overwhelm a USN CBG, yet.
 
 
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vok       4/27/2011 12:54:17 PM

Since a US Carrier is never without it's accompanying Carrier Battle Group and those ships have the Aegis SM-2 and SM-3 ABM's, how do the Chi-Comms expect to score a hit on a carrier? The US Navy has already proved they can take out incoming ICBM's and IRBM's. The DF-21 has about an snowball's chance in hell of getting through.





Unlike traditional IRBM, DF-21D deploys a highly maneuverable warhead. Its midcourse and terminal trajectory can't be accurately determined. SM-2/3 is far less useful under such scenario.
 
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vok       4/27/2011 1:02:23 PM

Since a US Carrier is never without it's accompanying Carrier Battle Group and those ships have the Aegis SM-2 and SM-3 ABM's, how do the Chi-Comms expect to score a hit on a carrier? The US Navy has already proved they can take out incoming ICBM's and IRBM's. The DF-21 has about an snowball's chance in hell of getting through.





Unlike traditional IRBM, DF-21D deploys a highly maneuverable warhead. Its midcourse and terminal trajectory can't be accurately determined. SM-2/3 is far less useful under such scenario.
 
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Colonel Korg       4/27/2011 3:53:59 PM
At the rate of closure with speeds approaching miles per second, it won't be able to maneuver very much and not be hit. The SM-3 kill vehicle can also adjust its intercept to compensate. Also more than one SM-3 would be launched to guarantee a kill.

With 2 Aegis Crusiers and 4 Aegis Destroyers per CBG, they would have to send the entire PLAAF and launch all their DF-21's to pose a threat. The PLAAF aircraft would be up against the far superior F-18E Super-Hornets, EF-18F Growlers and F-35C Lightning' providing CAP with some of the best pilots the world has ever known.  Then the layer of SM-2's, RAMs and Phalanx cannons for anything that may have slipped by. 

The DF-21's would be countered by the SM-2's and SM-3's. 

To add insult to injury, by 2018 there will also be rail guns and lasers for medium range and close in defense.

 

 
 
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RtWingCon    mental masterbations   4/27/2011 8:19:47 PM
While these discussions are interesting, a major power attacking a carrier group means we have more to worry about than 1 carrier, rather just how large the conflict gets. Take one crrier group out and there's more to replace it. While that's happening other assets are taking out the remaining coastal nasties. For a country that depends so heavily on it's maritime industry, why would china risk it?  Besides, the best way to defeat and eliminate the carrier group is to support dipstick politicos and defense sec's who have no respect for the military but rather contempt. Luckily we have election cycles.
 
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RHylton       5/4/2011 6:41:00 PM
The fact that China has/will developed some capacity to engage a CBG anywhere within its sphere of influence using standoff weapons will influence US decision making. China has no choice but to attempt to develop such weapons, or cede control of its coastlines during any future conflict. it doesn't matter how well it works, just the threat of a weapon system like the DF-21 is enough to make a carrier commander worry, considering the DF-21 is a "first strike" use it or lose it weapons system.
 
in the event of war, the first thing that will happen, is every chinese RORSAT and photo bird in orbit will eat a kinetic kill vehicle. once that happens, the DF-21 loses most of its threat.
 
 
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Colonel Korg       5/5/2011 7:48:39 PM


The fact that China has/will developed some capacity to engage a CBG anywhere within its sphere of influence using standoff weapons will influence US decision making. China has no choice but to attempt to develop such weapons, or cede control of its coastlines during any future conflict. it doesn't matter how well it works, just the threat of a weapon system like the DF-21 is enough to make a carrier commander worry, considering the DF-21 is a "first strike" use it or lose it weapons system.

 

in the event of war, the first thing that will happen, is every chinese RORSAT and photo bird in orbit will eat a kinetic kill vehicle. once that happens, the DF-21 loses most of its threat.

 

Agreed!  And once the rail guns and directed energy weapons are in place on the ships of the CBG, then it's pretty much over for the attacker. Anything airborne thrown at the CBG would be a futile gesture.  

As a CBG commander, I would far more afraid of a super quiet diesel electric sub with AIP getting inside the CBG pickets and torpedoing the HVTs (The carrier and the other capital ships of the inner group.)  That is the real threat.


 
 
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Slim Pickinz       5/5/2011 10:14:13 PM







The fact that China has/will developed some capacity to engage a CBG anywhere within its sphere of influence using standoff weapons will influence US decision making. China has no choice but to attempt to develop such weapons, or cede control of its coastlines during any future conflict. it doesn't matter how well it works, just the threat of a weapon system like the DF-21 is enough to make a carrier commander worry, considering the DF-21 is a "first strike" use it or lose it weapons system.



 



in the event of war, the first thing that will happen, is every chinese RORSAT and photo bird in orbit will eat a kinetic kill vehicle. once that happens, the DF-21 loses most of its threat.



 




Agreed!  And once the rail guns and directed energy weapons are in place on the ships of the CBG, then it's pretty much over for the attacker. Anything airborne thrown at the CBG would be a futile gesture.  




As a CBG commander, I would far more afraid of a super quiet diesel electric sub with AIP getting inside the CBG pickets and torpedoing the HVTs (The carrier and the other capital ships of the inner group.)  That is the real threat.







 


Except the CBG basically has to run over a diesel sub for it to have a chance to get a shot at the carrier, as it would be too slow to chase down the battle group without being heard. I would think in a war-time situation any US task force group operating near China would be using a lot more active sonar to find those subs. That's why a replacement is needed for the OHP, a cost-effective frigate that can act as a sonar picket without having to risk a billion dollar destroyer. I understand that ASW helos have taken up a lot of this responsibility, but they don't have the persistance for an extended active sonar search.
 
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