January23, 2007:
Saudia Arabia and Iran are getting ready for war with each other. And
it's not over oil or ethnicity, as much as it is over theology. Saudi Arabia,
by dint of its vast oil wealth and role as protector of Islami's holiest
places, sees itself as the leader of the Moslem world. Not a leader in the
sense of giving orders that-will-be-obeyed. No, leader more in the rich uncle
sense. Especially if the uncle was also a rather religious fellow.
The
Saud family gained control of most of Arabia back in the 1920s, mainly via a
long time relationship with the most conservative religious sect in Arabia, the
Wahhabis. Thus equipped, the Saudis could be both mightier, and holier, than
any other clan in region. It was a winning combination. But there are some
problems when you read the fine print. The most obvious hassle was the Wahhabi
desire to resist modern technology, and ideas. So Saudi women can't drive cars,
although back in the 1920s they could ride horses and camels. The Sauds got the
power, but the Wahhabis got the right to decide how people live. Another bit of
fine print has to do with the Shia sect of Islam. There are dozens of sects in
Islam, and the largest, besides the mainline Sunnis, are the Shia. Most of the
Shia are Iranians, who aren't even Arabs. That's important for Arabs, who
consider all non-Arabs as, well, if not sub-human, certainly not the best they
could be. The Iranians look like the hated Europeans (one of the few peoples
able to halt the spread of Islam), and often act like Europeans. But the worst
thing about Iranians are that they are Shia. According to the Wahhabi clergy,
Shia are heretics. The Saud family was always good at countering the nasty
habits of the Wahhabi clergy, and has managed to keep the preachers quiet (or
at least off the mass media) about those Shia heretics. At the same time, the
Sauds have kept things reasonably friendly with Iran. All that is coming to an
end.
For
all those decades Saddam Hussein was in power, American suggestions, or
attempts, to overthrow the dictator of Iraq were always met with resistance
from the Saudis. Most Americans could not understand this, even when the Shia
angle was mentioned. It must have been something to do with oil. It actually
has little to do with oil. It's all about which form of Islam is more
"correct." Since 1979, Iran has been run by conservative clergy, and these guys
wanted to rule the world. To the Saudis, only Iraq, and its ruthless leader
Saddam Hussein, stood in the way. The 1980-88 war between Iraq and Iran was
seen as a desperate fight to contain the Shia menace. It was thus, with much
sadness, that Arabs viewed the defeat, and recent demise, of Saddam Hussein.
For many Sunnis in the region, Saddam was their champion.
The
Sunnis see America as being stupid, or greedy to control Iraqi oil, or both, in
their overthrow of Saddam. Because of this U.S. action, the Shia, and thus,
Iran, controls Iraq. The Sunni control of Islams holy places is now threatened.
This seems certain once Iran gets nuclear weapons. Note that, during the thirty
years Israel has had nuclear weapons, there was no great effort in the Arab
world to do the same. But now that Iran is going nuclear, there's all this talk
of developing (or buying from the Pakistanis) the "Arab bomb." Believe it,
because the Arabs do.