February15, 2007:
In Venezuela, populist president Hugo Chavez has been rather quiet
these past few weeks. Last heard from early in February, when he denounced
George Bush as a "war criminal," Chavez seems to be having problems with the
fall-out from some of his actions earlier this year. Following his inauguration
for a new term as president in mid-January, he declared that the oil and
electrical industries were to be nationalized, and that all political parties
would be abolished and subsumed under one "Socialist" party, with himself as its
head. Then he asked the national congress to grant him the power to rule by
decree. In between, he's renewed his "friendship" with Iran's extremist
President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, made openly anti-Semitic remarks, undertaken
gratuitous attacks on the Roman Catholic Church, and fired a couple of his
formerly very close advisors.
Chavez'
antics have led to a number of important consequences. Many political leaders,
even radical leftists, are suspicious of his unified "socialist" party and his
desire for more power. The announced nationalization of the oil and electrical
industries, supposedly to begin in May, led to an immediate collapse in the
Venezuelan stock exchange of nearly 25-percent (and still falling), as foreign
investors began pulling out their money. This has worsened the country's
already faltering economy.
Aided
by his buddy Ahmadinejad, who has similar problems, Chavez is trying to get
OPEC to boost the price of oil, which would compensate in some measure for the
economic losses the country is incurring. This is unlikely given Saudi Arabia's
desire to keep the price relatively low, which has the dual payoff of keeping
Uncle Sam happy while injuring the already shaky Iranian economy. So
Venezuelans are not likely to see any improvement in their economic situation
any time soon.
Two
things keep Chavez in power, his promises of "pie in the sky" to the country's
poverty-stricken masses and his ultra-nationalist anti-Americanism. Sooner or
later the message that the U.S. is behind all of Venezuela's problems will
begin wearing thin, particularly as Chavez spends more and more money of
weapons procurement and buying influence abroad. This will certainly lead to
internal problems, which will spark increased police state measures. These, in
turn, will only create more discontent. The optimal American policy toward
Chavez should be one of amused indifference, which will probably irk him more
than any active measures to unseat him.