November 26,2008:
Jordanian Islamic radicals have been on the defensive for the last two
years, and now they are fighting each other. This began when Islamic radical
scholar Abu Muhammad al Maqdisi was released from prison this past March, and
issued statements toning down his previous calls for Islamic terrorism. Maqdisi
had made some friends into enemies three years ago, when he publically
criticized a former protégé, Iraq al Qaeda leader Abu Musab al Zarqawi, for
killing too many Moslems with all his terrorist bombings. But now there is a
definite rift among Jordanian Islamic radicals, between radical, and the very
radical.
Three years
ago, a poll by the Pew Research Organization, revealed that support for al
Qaeda, in Moslem nations, was declining. In only one Moslem country, Jordan,
had support for Islamic terrorism increased (from 55 percent in 2002, to 60
percent.) More typical was Morocco, where support for al Qaeda dropped from 49
to 26 percent. In Lebanon, only two percent of the population supported al
Qaeda.
Jordanian
attitudes were influenced by the fact that most of the population considers
itself Palestinian (or at least descended from Palestinian refugees). Jordan
has also seen very few al Qaeda attacks. This is mostly due to the efficient
police force, who are dominated by the Bedouin minority that runs the kingdom.
One aspect of that control is to allow people to say, and believe, what they
want. While the Palestinian majority may not like the monarchy, they know that
the Bedouins would respond violently to any uprising. That has happened often
enough in the past half century, to convince most Jordanians that, while you
can shout nasty things at the king, don't take a shot at him. That said, the
current king of Jordan, and his late father, went out of their way to be nice
to their Palestinian citizens, as long as there was no violence against the
government. The occasional violation of this understanding was met with a
swift, and sometimes violent, response. Jordan is not a police state, but it is
very well policed.
With al
Qaeda taking a beating in Iraq back then, the organization moved more of its
operations to Jordan. The leader of al Qaeda in Iraq at the time, Abu Musab al
Zarqawi, was a Jordanian, and had been condemned to death in Jordan for
terrorism, and always wanted to inflict some pain back home, if only for old
times sake. Islamic terrorists have long been active in Jordan. But Zarqawi
found himself in Iraq in early 2003, because the police were hot on his heels
back in Jordan, and Saddam was always quick to offer sanctuary for terrorists.
Zarqawi's
attempts to terrorize his own home country were largely unsuccessful. Jordanian
security forces stopped two Islamic terror attacks in 2003, eight in 2004 and
ten in 2005. The turning point came in 2006. First, there was an al Qaeda
bombing of a wedding reception in Jordan in November, 2005. There were four
bombers; three men and a woman. The attack killed 56 and wounded about a
hundred. The woman's bomb failed to go off. She fled the scene, but was hunted
down and arrested four days later. She confessed and provided details of the
operation. The Jordanian population was outraged. Most Jordanians believed that
their support of al Qaeda gave them immunity to such savage attacks on
civilians. Attacks against government targets were OK, but a wedding reception?
Seven months later, Zarqawi was finally cornered and killed in Iraq. It's still
believed that he was give up to American intelligence by rivals among the Iraqi
terrorist groups. Al Qaeda tried to explain away the November bombing as an
attempt to kill CIA agents staying at the hotel. Most Jordanians didn't believe
it, and support for al Qaeda plummeted.
Al Qaeda,
and Islamic radicals, have been losing lots of popular support because of all
the terror attacks in Moslem countries. In the 1990s this was going on in Egypt
and Algeria, and again in Afghanistan in the late 1990s, as the Taliban, and
their al Qaeda allies, sought to use terror to control Afghans who disagreed
with the severe form of Islam the radicals were pushing. Iraq was the turning
point, as the extent of Islamic terrorism against other Moslems turned the
majority of Moslems against the radicals. This was especially true in Saudi
Arabia, where much of the enthusiasm for the current round of Islamic terrorism
came from. It was another case of being careful what you ask for, as you might
get it, and not like it.