May 10, 2024:
In the north,
the MNJTF (Multinational Joint Task Force) has, since 2015 played a major role
in destroying Boko Haram and other Islamic terrorist groups in Borno State. Boko
Haram translates to western education is forbidden. The group was originally
inspired by the success of the Taliban in Afghanistan.
MNJTF strength varies from
7,500 to 10,000 troops and maintains bases and camps near Lake Chad in northern
Borno state and concentrates on hunting down and killing Islamic terrorists.
MNJTF has taken the lead in containing local ISIL (Islamic State in Iraq and
the Levant) groups, mainly ISWAP (Islamic State West Africa Province) and
blocking the Islamic terrorist efforts to once more control territory in the
region.
Increasing violence by Boko
Haram and Islamic terrorists in neighboring countries led to the creation of
the MNJTF, which consists of troops from Niger, Chad, Cameroon, Benin, and
Nigeria. At first the MNJTF was used mainly inside Nigeria but by early 2017
MNJTF was spending most of its time clearing Boko Haram out of border areas,
especially the Lake Chad coast. Each member country assigns some of their best
troops to the MNJTF. Because of that Boko Haram has suffered heavy losses
trying to deal with the MNJTF. This played a role in the 2016 Boko Haram split
that turned Boko Haram operating near Lake Chad into ISWAP. MNJTF concentrated
more and more on the areas around Lake Chad and has been successful at curbing
ISWAP operations there.
Recently the Nigerian Air
Force has been using its ground attack aircraft to carry out frequent air
strikes against ISWAP during April and early May. Soldiers enter an area hit by
an air strike as quickly as possible to count the dead, capture the wounded and
pursue the survivors and walking wounded. Badly wounded men are often carried
away and would often not survive a rapid pursuit. The dead are searched
to obtain identification and any useful information in the form of documents or
stored on cell phones or laptop computers. The fleeing terrorists often leave
behind large quantities of equipment and supplies, including motorcycles,
trucks, large amounts of grain and grinders to turn the grain into flour.
Documents recovered, and interrogations of captured terrorists and local
civilians, sometimes reveal that a major supply base for Islamic terrorists in
the region was captured.
ISWAP is the sole survivor in
a civil war among Islamic terrorist factions that took place in the northern
Sambisa Forest. This remote and thinly populated area has long been a refuge
for bandits and currently Islamic terrorists. There is still violence in the
far north caused by Boko Haram and Islamic terrorists. Some battles between
Boko Haram and ISWAP fighters left over a hundred dead. Most of these
skirmishes were less deadly.
Another new problem in the
north is the nomadic Fulani, who have long skirmishes with farmers and each
other over access to water and grasslands for their herds in northeastern and
Central Nigeria. The Fulani are armed, mainly with AK-47 assault rifles and not
much ammunition. The Fulani have learned how to use the AK-47 in single shot
mode, which requires the user to quickly release the trigger after one of two
shots. The nomadic Fulani have long lived frugal lives along with their cattle
in the relatively dry Sahel region. The Sahel forms a transitional region
between the dry Sahara Desert to the north and the humid savanna region to the
south. The Sahel is a semi-desert area south of the Sahara Desert that covers
much of northern Africa from the Atlantic Ocean to the east coast of Africa.
A growing Fulani population
and the need for more cattle to support more Fulani meant the Fulani needed
more grazing land and water. The only major source of water in northeastern
Nigeria is the Niger River, which makes its way through several countries,
including Sudan, Chad, Senegal, Mauritania, Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger, and
Nigeria. West of the Niger River, there is a lot less water and more
competition between the Fulani herders and farmers occupying and working arable
land south of the Sahel.
Most Nigerians want a long standing compromise with the Fulani to survive but the radical Islamic terrorist minority among the Fulani were unconcerned with such un-Islamic compromises and were willing to burn the entire nation down to prove their point. The Fulani violence has been escalating for years and overall has killed five times as many Christians as Boko Haram. That’s because the majority of Nigerians the Fulani attack are Christians. With Boko Haram in the north, the Christians are a minority who are quick to leave when threatened and move to the Christian south. Boko Haram killed as many Christians as they could catch but most northern Christians were not eager to become martyrs. In Central Nigeria the Christians are defending their ancient homeland and livelihoods from invaders.
In 2023 Nigerian President
Tinubu backed a compromise plan between the Moslem Fulani and the Christian and
Moslem farming communities south of the Sahel that the Fulani nomads were
moving into. Tinubu had problems getting all factions of the Fulani to cooperate.
When the Christians fight
back against aggressive Fulani or Islamic terrorists, the Islamic terrorists
take heavy losses and are often driven away while the more numerous Fulani
remain. This is why there is this north-south religious divide in Nigeria and
several other African nations. Islam had been slowly moving south in Africa for
over a thousand years when the Europeans showed up and moved inland early in
the 18th century. The Europeans, like the Arabs before them, had no resistance
to the many local diseases, especially in areas with more rainfall. The
advancing Arabs married into the local tribes and slowly developed immunity to
the local diseases.
Since 2020 the Islamic terrorist violence has declined while tribal violence grew to be the largest source of violent deaths in central and northern Nigeria. The Islamic terror groups were not just fighting to expand the territory they controlled. This was not about conquest but staying alive. Most of the violence could be described as banditry on a large and growing scale. By 2024 violence throughout Nigeria had become endemic, especially in the northeast, where nearly five million people were suffering from severe and growing hunger. Similar but less severe problems were felt by nearly 40 million Nigerians. The government denied the extent of the problem and did so from the capital or other major cities where the food shortages were minimal. You had to go out into the countryside to witness the full extent of the crisis. The government advised foreigners to avoid such areas because they weren’t safe.
By 2024 the Christians in
northeastern Adamawa state had rebuilt 87 churches destroyed by Boko Haram
after 2014. Boko Haram came and went while the more numerous Christian
communities prevailed. The problems with Boko Haram can be traced back to
2004 when Islamic violence in the northeast began as protests and escalated
into larger and persistent problems. The violence became so extensive and
intense that there are still millions of refugees plus substantial economic
damage in northeastern Borno and Adamawa States, where it all began.
There seems to be no end in
sight because of the corruption among local government and tribal leaders. For
a while some competent leadership in the security forces reduced the violence
but that did not last. Historically local police and the national armed forces
have been crippled by corrupt and inept leadership. All this when a small
group in northeastern Borno State calling themselves Boko Haram sought to
emulate the Taliban in Afghanistan and impose order using Islamic law and
ruthless violence. This activity grew for a decade until 2014 and appeared
unstoppable. It took over a year for the government to finally muster
sufficient military strength to cripple but not destroy Boko Haram.
This did not get much media
attention outside Africa, even though in 2014 Boko Haram killed more people
than ISIL did in Syria and Iraq. The main reason for Boko Haram gains in 2014
and 2015 were corruption in the army, which severely crippled effective counterterror
efforts. By itself Boko Haram was too small to have much impact on a national
scale but the inability to deal with this problem put a spotlight on the
corruption that has hobbled all progress in Nigeria for decades.
A new president, Bola Tinubu,
was elected in 2023 and made considerable progress in reducing corruption. This
included dealing with growing instances of tribal feuds and similar violence
throughout the country. This has been especially bad down south in the Niger
River Delta oil-producing region. Violence against oil facilities continues, in
part because local politicians and business leaders were part of the oil theft
business.
Northern Moslems want more
control over the federal government and the oil money. In northern and central
Nigeria, you have increasing violence as nomadic Moslem herders move south and
clash with largely Christian farmers over land use and water supplies. For the
last few years these tribal feuds have killed more people than Boko Haram. The
situation is still capable of sliding into regional civil wars, over money and
political power. Corruption and ethnic/tribal/religious rivalries threaten to
trigger, at worse, another civil war or at least more street violence and
public anger.