February 2, 2026: Yesterday, Nigerian soldiers killed a Boko Haram commander and ten of his followers during a night raid in the northeastern Sambisa forest. This is a large 60,000 square kilometer, hilly, sparsely populated area where the borders of Borno, Yobe and Adamwa states meet. It has long been a hideout for Boko Haram and since 2014 has been under constant aerial surveillance by Nigerian and American aircraft.

In October 2025, the American president declared that Nigerian Christians were under constant attack and that the Nigerian government was not doing enough to protect Christians. On Christmas Day the United States, in cooperation with Nigerian officials, carried out a series of air strikes against Islamic terrorist groups responsible for attacks on Christian.

In November and December Nigeria also suffered a revival of mass kidnapping of students in northern and central Nigeria. Over 300 students and teachers were taken. Unlike previous kidnappings, the recent ones resulted in the victims being released by the end of the year. There was apparently no payment of ransom, just kidnappers fearing soldiers, police or local militias would hunt them down and use lethal force to get the captives released.

In addition there was an increase in Islamic terrorist activity, particularly by ISWAP/Islamic State West Africa Province and Boko Haram. Including ethnic fighting between farmers and herders, there were neatly 150 incidents of death by bullets, bombs or natural disasters.

In 2024 it was noted that since 2020 the Islamic terrorism groups faded away while ethnic tribal violence became responsible for most casualties. In 2024 kidnapping increased with over 600 people kidnapped for ransom. Most of this took place in the northern states of Borno and Kaduna. There were nationwide protests over cost-of-living increases. The Islamic terror groups’ main activity was staying alive, and they did so via banditry. Back in 2004, Islamic terrorist violence in the northeast appeared and created some lasting problems. There are still millions of refugees plus substantial economic damage in northeastern Borno State, where it all began. There seems to be no end in sight because of the local corruption, but more competent leadership in the security forces reduced the violence. All this was caused by a local group of Taliban wannabes calling themselves Boko Haram. Their activity in the capital of Borno State grew for a decade until in 2014 it seemed unstoppable. It took over a year for the government to finally muster sufficient military strength to cripple but not destroy Boko Haram. This did not get much media attention outside Africa, even though in 2014 Boko Haram killed more people than ISIL did in Syria and Iraq. The main reason for Boko Haram gains in 2014 and 2015 was corruption in the army, which severely crippled effective counterterror efforts. By itself Boko Haram was too small to have much impact on a national scale but the inability to deal with this problem put a spotlight on the corruption that has hobbled all progress in Nigeria for decades.

A new president was elected in 2023 and made considerable progress in changing the corruption. This included problems with tribal feuds and growing unrest throughout the country. This has been especially bad down south in the oil producing region of the Niger River Delta. Violence against oil facilities continues, in part because local politicians and business leaders are part of the oil theft business. Northern Moslems want more influence over the federal government and a bigger share of the oil money. In northern and central Nigeria, you have increasing violence as nomadic Moslem herders move south and clash with largely Christian farmers over land use and water supplies. For the last few years these tribal feuds have killed more people than Boko Haram. The situation is still capable of sliding into regional civil wars, over money and political power. Corruption and ethnic/tribal/religious rivalries threaten to trigger, at worse, another civil war and, at least, more street violence and public anger.