Sri Lanka: Decline and Fall


August 2, 2007: Troops in the north are expanding the area they control, and are finding major enemy weapons caches (thousands of grenades, bomb components and large amounts of ammunition). Radio intercepts, plus prisoner and defector interrogations, indicates that air attacks are becoming more effective. The bombers often catch their targets by surprise, inflicting higher casualties because the LTTE rebels do not have a chance to take cover.

The fighting on the ground is small scale, with army and police patrols being ambushed, or running into small groups of LTTE and firing on each other. Casualties amount to a few hundred a week, mostly wounded, and mostly rebels. The LTTE troops are not as enthusiastic or resolute as in the past. Many simply flee when they encounter the army or police.

The number of defectors from the LTTE combat forces, and civilian population, are increasing. The defectors report low morale, and increasing efforts to mobilize a military force that can defeat the government. More suicide attacks are planned, but recruiting people to carry them out is not as easy as it used to be.

August 1, 2007: Police in south India (Tamil Nadu state) detected and arrested four Sri Lankan Tamils who were trying to recruit Sri Lankan Tamils in refugee camps, to go back and join the fighting in Sri Lanka. The four were deported back to Sri Lanka. The government is receiving more and more reports of the LTTE forcing Tamils to join combat units for what is seen as a "final battle."

July 29, 2007: In the north, police found two suicide belts and six bombs hidden in a Hindu temple. Many more weapons are being found in the east, where LTTE resistance has apparently disappeared, despite the fact that prisoners indicate there are still a hundred or more LTTE regulars in the area.

July 28, 2007: The navy caught two LTTE boats, some 200 kilometers off the northeast coast, and sank them. At least six LTTE rebels were killed. The LTTE continues to smuggle weapons and ammo, and some of those ships are making it through. The LTTE boats try to pass themselves off a fishing boats, before making a run for the coast.


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