August 22, 2024: Russian officials are planning on military reforms after the war in Ukraine is over. The major problem is none of the Russian planners can agree on when the war will end. The Russians are unsure how to end the war. Russian leaders are willing to continue the war indefinitely and wait for NATO countries supporting Ukraine to tire of the expense and futility of their efforts. Russia believes that it cannot afford to end the war and Ukraine is certain that it cannot lose the war and disappear as a country. This is the old “irresistible forces versus the immovable object” problem. One thing is certain, low Russian production of tanks and sanctions related shortages of tanks, including older ones brought out of storage, means that by sometime in late 2025 the supply of tanks and replacement artillery barrels will be exhausted. Howitzers wear out their barrels after 2,000 to 2,500 shells are fired from them.

Russian plans to eventually win conflict with NATO plans to support Ukraine for as long as it takes to prevent a Russian victory. One thing both sides agree on is that the cost of continuing the war is high but both sides believe they can keep at it longer than their enemy. Russia is in a weaker position even though they have created a wartime economy. This has led to an increased poverty rate and problems for Russian businesses that long prospered because they could do business with NATO countries. That is gone and Russian leader Vladimir Putin punishes Russians who complain about economic problems caused by the Ukraine invasion. It is generally understood in Russia that once Putin is gone, either from power, the Ukraine War will end, or at last the Russians will withdraw their forces. There is still the problem of Russia still occupying about a quarter of Ukraine and not in a mood to give that up. Ukraine insists it will keep fighting to regain its territory.

Giving up the Ukrainian territory in return for peace and an end to sanctions would be a good deal for Russia, Ukraine and the NATO supporters of Ukraine. That is unlikely to happen, at least not as long as Vladimir Putin is still running Russia. Putin was behind Russian voting reforms that allowed him to remain in power, if the voters agree, until 2036. At that point Putin will be 83 years old. The current age limit for Russian presidents is 70, Putin can get that changed. The problem is that during the Soviet period Russian dictators served for life and often became unstable rulers as they got into their 70s.

Putin has been in office since 2000 and kept getting reelected because he took care of basic needs that are important to most Russians. This included pensions you can survive on and low unemployment rates. What Putin can’t change is his age. He is currently 71 and in modern Russia history that makes him one of the oldest. Josef Stalin, the Soviet leader who was in power longest, died in 1953, at 75 from a stroke. His successor, Nikita Khrushchev, died in 1971, at 77, of a heart attack. He was followed by Leonid Brezhnev who died in 1892, at 76 from an undisclosed ailment. He was followed by Yuri Andropov who died at 70 from kidney failure. Then came Konstantin Chernenko who died in 1985, at 74 from pneumonia. Boris Yeltsin, who retired in 1999 and died in 2007 from heart failure at age 76, criticized his successor Vladimir Putin for changing the government from a democracy to Soviet style dictatorship with rigged elections.

When the war is over in Ukraine, Putin plans to ignore the current election laws and serve until he is 83 years old, unless the stress of running the war in Ukraine does not kill him sooner. Putin’s strategy for keeping the war going was to create a wartime economy. This included spending huge sums to entice Russian men to join the military. That fell out of favor as these newly affluent soldiers were killed or disabled and discovered that the high pay was not worth it if you are dead or disabled.

Paying for the war had ruined the economy in many ways. Putin soon discovered that no matter how much he improvised he could not match the combined economic power of the Americans and Europeans. With more resources the NATO nations supplied Ukraine with more numerous and powerful weapons. The economic sanctions imposed on Russia for invading Ukraine hampered Putin’s efforts to create a wartime economy. Putin has created a paradox he has a hard time getting out of. He has no one but himself to blame and that’s an outcome most Ukrainians, Russians and anyone from Europe or the United States can agree with.