China: November 25, 2003


The Taiwanese parliament passed a law setting up an independence referendum in the event that China pursues reunification by force. The Chinese have yet another problem to deal with, but if Taiwan goes independent, China will have to deal with that somehow. But the PLAN does not have the sealift capability to invade, and even if it did, the PLAAF would have to win air superiority. That would be difficult against the Taiwanese Air Force and Navy, which get a lot more training than their counterparts. Taiwan also has the Seventh Fleet as backup. The Taiwanese are also highly motivated. That is understandable when one is in the military of a country who has a neighbor determined to forcibly annex it. -- Harold C. Hutchison


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