China: December 16, 2003


Last month, a Hong Kong paper reported a Chinese army plan to take Taiwan. Subsequent investigation indicated the published plans were probably real. The Chinese have been practicing invasion tactics on Hainan island (near Hong Kong). Taiwanese military analysts are not impressed with the plan, but it does demonstrate Chinese military thinking. The plan is also seen as wishful thinking and it's release a bit of propaganda and an attempt to scare independence minded Taiwanese. The plan calls for a massive air, naval and missile attack on Taiwanese bases, and then use paratroopers to grab a bit of territory in northeast Taiwan. Then, in the most improbable part, 500,000 troops would be moved into the captured territory in twelve days. The Chinese would then move to cut the island in half and then conquer each half. What was left out of the plan was how China would overcome the equipment and training advantages the Taiwanese have. Another Chinese problem is the low level of readiness in the peacetime military. It's an ancient Chinese problem, and according to recent news and internet reports, is still around. 



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