China: December 29, 2003


Taiwanese military researchers have concluded that China will continue to build up it's armed forces over the next decade, but will depend on surprise and shock (a massive initial attack) if they decide to attack Taiwan. To counter this, Taiwan must wage an information war campaign to keep the Taiwanese people informed of the danger and alert, and the world informed of China's intentions. If China attacked, it would be massive and quick, using missiles, commandoes, aircraft and amphibious invasions. The Taiwanese armed forces would have to be trained and equipped to deal with that kind of war. Chinese military leaders have been studying the wars of the last few decades, as well as China's extensive military history. America's ability to quickly muster and apply massive military power has been noted, as has the success of ancient Chinese generals in using the same approach and using surprise and deception as well. 

Evidence of  China's strategy can be seen in massive purchases of advanced weapons from Russia and Israel (despite American efforts to block a lot of the Israeli sales.) Weapons imports from Russia have been speeded up in the last year. Every year, for the last few years, military spending has been sharply up. The size of the military has been cut so that the remaining soldiers can be better trained. It is understood that well trained troops are needed to fight in "the American style."

Chinese intelligence efforts in the US and Taiwan have increased, as have efforts to root out Taiwanese intelligence networks in China (that could detect a Chinese surprise attack.)

A successful Chinese surprise attack would put substantial Chinese forces in Taiwan before the American military could respond. Taiwanese military leaders consider the Chinese capable of such an attack sometime in the next decade if the Chinese military build up continues.



Article Archive

China: Current 2023 2022 2021 2020 2019 2018 2017 2016 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 1999 



Help Keep Us From Drying Up

We need your help! Our subscription base has slowly been dwindling.

Each month we count on your contribute. You can support us in the following ways:

  1. Make sure you spread the word about us. Two ways to do that are to like us on Facebook and follow us on Twitter.
  2. Subscribe to our daily newsletter. We’ll send the news to your email box, and you don’t have to come to the site unless you want to read columns or see photos.
  3. You can contribute to the health of StrategyPage.
Subscribe   contribute   Close