China: December 29, 2003

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Taiwanese military researchers have concluded that China will continue to build up it's armed forces over the next decade, but will depend on surprise and shock (a massive initial attack) if they decide to attack Taiwan. To counter this, Taiwan must wage an information war campaign to keep the Taiwanese people informed of the danger and alert, and the world informed of China's intentions. If China attacked, it would be massive and quick, using missiles, commandoes, aircraft and amphibious invasions. The Taiwanese armed forces would have to be trained and equipped to deal with that kind of war. Chinese military leaders have been studying the wars of the last few decades, as well as China's extensive military history. America's ability to quickly muster and apply massive military power has been noted, as has the success of ancient Chinese generals in using the same approach and using surprise and deception as well. 

Evidence of  China's strategy can be seen in massive purchases of advanced weapons from Russia and Israel (despite American efforts to block a lot of the Israeli sales.) Weapons imports from Russia have been speeded up in the last year. Every year, for the last few years, military spending has been sharply up. The size of the military has been cut so that the remaining soldiers can be better trained. It is understood that well trained troops are needed to fight in "the American style."

Chinese intelligence efforts in the US and Taiwan have increased, as have efforts to root out Taiwanese intelligence networks in China (that could detect a Chinese surprise attack.)

A successful Chinese surprise attack would put substantial Chinese forces in Taiwan before the American military could respond. Taiwanese military leaders consider the Chinese capable of such an attack sometime in the next decade if the Chinese military build up continues.

 

 

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