India-Pakistan: September 29, 2004

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Along the Afghan border, Pakistani counter-terrorist operations have resulted in interrogations of tribesmen and some al Qaeda members. This has revealed that Osama bin Laden had to allow most of his Arab bodyguards to return home earlier this year. The Arabs were needed to defend al Qaeda against attacks in Saudi Arabia, Yemen and Iraq. This has left the al Qaeda security force in Pakistan dominated by Islamic radicals from Uzbekistan. Back home, government pressure has made it more difficult for Uzbek terrorists to survive. But the situation is getting pretty desperate in Pakistan, as the Pakistani army creeps closer and closer to the al Qaeda hiding places. Winter is coming, and the army will have a major advantage (helicopters), while the al Qaeda men will be incapacitated by the cold weather. 

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