India-Pakistan: Saved By The Rain


August 12, 2010: In the Pakistani tribal territories, the recent record floods have halted most combat operations, as many (nearly 100,000) troops turn to relief and rescue work. Most of the military helicopters have switched to flood related operations, thus taken away a major tool for dealing with the Taliban and al Qaeda fighters. Meanwhile, the Islamic terrorist death squads have continued going after military and police leaders. Although the floods have affected only about ten percent of the Pakistani population, most of that is in the tribal territories. The floods have been a problem for about two weeks, and are expected to be around for another week or so.  The U.S. has sent six heavy (CH-47) helicopters, with another dozen or so on the way. Islamic radical groups have also set up flood relief operations, and made sure that pictures and videos of this got out onto the Internet, with accusations that the government is doing nothing (which is not true, most of the flood relief is from government organizations.) About six million Pakistanis are in need of food and housing aid. Foreign donors are reluctant to give because recent disaster relief operations have seen much of the aid stolen by government officials or Islamic radical groups. Some 1,600 have died from the flooding so far, and thousands more are likely to die from hunger and disease if enough aid is not delivered.  

Meanwhile, the al Qaeda and Taliban sanctuaries in North Waziristan and parts of Baluchistan remain untouched by the Pakistani security forces. The flood relief work will occupy the troops, perhaps for months. But Western nations believe that pro-terrorist elements in the Pakistani government continue to have a veto on any attempt to eliminate all such sanctuaries.

Three Islamic terrorists were killed by an army patrol 75 kilometers outside Srinagar, the state capital of Indian Kashmir. Despite the record floods there, Islamic terrorists continue to cross over from Pakistan via the high mountain passes. In the last two months, over fifty have died as a result of riots, largely by teenagers and people in their 20s, protesting Indian rule and unemployment (caused by two decades of Islamic terrorism). The many students involved in the riots has shut down many schools. Students who want to keep up with their studies have gone to schools in non-Moslem areas in southern Kashmir. The violence isn't all just about anger at the unemployment and constant presence of security forces. There is also a civil war going on among Kashmiri Moslems, with a minority wanting an independent Kashmir, but most wanting to remain a part of India and get the local economy going again. The kids mainly want to raise hell.

The Indian war against Maoist rebels in the east is having more success in urban areas, where many rebel leaders live in hiding, and tend to administration, fund raising and logistical matters. The thousands of police and paramilitary troops out in the countryside are disrupting, but not destroying, Maoist combat capabilities. Meanwhile, the pressure is causing feuds between Maoist and communist factions. These tensions have always been there, but the government anti-Maoist operations have made internal differences more volatile. There have also been some feuding within the security forces, which now include air force support. But these disputes are being resolved, and there is growing cooperation between police and intelligence forces in states suffering from Maoist violence.

August 11, 2010: In Indian Kashmir, Islamic terrorists carried out two attacks, killing four and wounding 21. These are the first such attacks in four months. But in that time, teenage rioters have created a lot more unrest.






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