Potential Hot Spots: Bahrain


: Items About Areas That Could Break Out Into War

January 5, 2008: In Bahrain, the year ended with more riots by Shia religious extremists. Police arrested 32 people. Bahrain is an island kingdom off the coast of Saudi Arabia. Population is only 700,000, and a third of those are foreigners (non-Arab). Bahrain has long been pro-West, mainly as a way to prevent takeover by Iran (or mainland Arabs). Bahrain is currently the main base for the U.S. 5th Fleet, and a major American military operation in the region. Bahrain replaced Beirut as the most popular Arab banking center, during the 1975-90 Lebanese civil war. Bahrain is also a major tourist destinations, mainly for Saudis looking for some relief from the lifestyle police back home. You can get a drink, and much else, in Bahrain.

For centuries, Bahrain has been claimed by Iran, and about half the population is Shia (40 percent are Sunni and the rest non-Moslem). Like Shia Arabs throughout the region, they are the poorest segment of the population, and susceptible to radical Shia preachers calling for justice and revenge. The current unrest is all about money. The Shia don't have it, and have never had it. The Bahraini economy is booming, from oil, tourism and all manner of commercial services. But the Shia, who do not have a tradition of keeping their kids in school for long, are not able to compete. Radical Shia clergy preach that the poverty is because of religious persecution. This is believed by enough young, unemployed (or unsatisfied) men and teenagers to create an angry mob from time to time. The radical clerics get their best response from their followers when "compensation" (for past wrongs) is demanded. The resulting violence is spun by the radicals as "oppression", and the cycle continues.

The royal family backs economic and political reforms. This has worked, but not well enough for Shia and Sunni religious radicals. The Sunni radicals consider the Shia to be heretics, as well as a threat to Sunni control of Bahrain. The Shia radicals feel they should be running the kingdom as a religious dictatorship. Shia religious and political activists have motivated most Shia to vote, and the parliament has a large Shia block. The government does not believe the Shia radicals can take control by force, but some of the Shia radicals do. The violence will continue until enough Shia parents get their kids educated well enough to partake of Bahrain's prosperity. The radical clergy will always be there.


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