October 19, 2023:
Ukraine is receiving a lot of military aid, some of which comes in the form of older air defense missiles that are near the end of their useful lives but are still effective. Most of these are Sidewinder air-to-air missiles used from ground or vehicle-based launchers. Nearly 120,000 Sidewinders have been produced since the missile was introduced in the 1950s. Equipped with a heat seeking guidance system, upgrades have vastly improved the capabilities of Sidewinder while upgrades for older missiles have an average shelf life of 10-20 years. Between 10 and 15 percent of Sidewinders produced since 1950 are currently in service. Current models cost nearly half a million dollars each. Over a lifetime of up to 20 years that per missile cost can increase 30 percent or more. When an older missile must be disposed of, that can cost over $10,000 per missile. Some components can be reused but most are destroyed.
Only about one percent of the Sidewinders produced have been used in combat, accounting for nearly 300 aircraft. For more than a decade many older Sidewinders, and some of the more recent models, have been used as part of ground-based air defense systems. Sidewinders recently sent to Ukraine are for use by ground-based air defense systems. That will change in about six months as Ukraine receives their first F-16 fighters. But for now, Ukraine needs these missiles to deal with the continuing Russian use of low, slow (180 kilometers an hour) and loud propeller driven Iranian Shahed 136 cruise missiles that are GPS guided and have a range of over 1,000 kilometers. Ground-based Sidewinders have a range of up to 30 kilometers and are very accurate against Shahed 136s less than ten kilometers away. Given the slow speed of the Shahed 136, it is very vulnerable to ground-based Sidewinders. Ukrainian troops can also use Sidewinders against Russian helicopters that are beyond the range of portable anti-aircraft missiles (like the U.S. Stinger).
Over 50 years of incremental improvements in Sidewinder design have resulted in a much more capable missile. The first Sidewinders hit their target about 12 percent of the time. In the 1970s it was 16 percent but after 30 years (the 1980s) guidance systems have improved to the point where Sidewinder hit targets 80 percent of the time. The size and weight of Sidewinders hasn’t changed much since it was introduced over 60 years ago. Current models weigh about 85 kg (188 pounds) each, not much more than the first models but with far superior capabilities in terms of accuracy and range in air or from the ground.
The NATO nations supplying these Sidewinders have long been the major users of Sidewinders, and many of these missiles are getting old and approaching the “use or lose it” point. Ukraine plans to use these missiles quickly to defeat continuing Russian air attacks using unmanned aircraft like the Shahed 136. The Russians got thousands of these from Iran and now there is a factory in Russia producing them. Russia is using hundreds of Shahed 136s against Ukrainian infrastructure targets, especially power plants or power distribution facilities. Winter is coming and Russia wants to reduce Ukrainian power generation capabilities.
