July 25, 2024: Since early 2022, Ukrainians have survived Russian missile and air strikes on critical targets but the intensity of Russian missile and air strikes meant that Ukraine is in danger of running out of air defense missile stocks. As Ukraine’s supply of air defense missiles declined, Ukrainian air defense systems were less capable of defeating or threatening Russian air strikes. The situation changed dramatically as the fighting intensified and Ukraine began receiving a great deal of Western aid, which allowed the Ukrainian military to revive its air defense capabilities.

This year Russian attacks were aimed at destroying or disrupting Ukrainian infrastructure. Multiple strikes damaged critical infrastructure in seven provinces, including Poltava, Kirovohrad, Zaporizhzhia, Lviv, Ivano-Frankivsk, and Vinnytsia. Because scarce Ukrainian air defense systems were unable to cover all areas, Russian attacks on power plants succeeded against the Trypilska Thermal Power Plant, which was destroyed. Several other power plants were damaged and that caused power supply to be disrupted until repairs could be made.

Ukrainian officials pointed out that they calculated that 25 Patriot batteries were needed to protect all Ukrainian infrastructure targets. So far Ukraine has received less than a third of the needed Patriot batteries from NATO donors. The problem was that many European NATO member nations that were near Russia did not want to send all their Patriot batteries to Ukraine because Russia had threatened to attack NATO nations supplying Ukraine.

The damage to Ukrainian power plants will take years to completely restore. Russia was able to achieve this success because Ukraine had run out of air defense missiles and Russia took advantage of that.

The success of the Russian strikes was made possible by the severe depletion of Ukraine’s air defense systems and munitions. After almost two and half years of fighting, Ukrainian stocks have been targeted by Russian strategic aviation and further depleted in thwarting the frequent shelling of Ukrainian cities. For this reason, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy recently said, “Air defense is the answer. … We need at least seven additional Patriot systems to cover the major settlements soon”.

For over a decade Ukraine has been trying to improve its air defense systems. Before the Russians invaded in 2022, Ukraine had several thousand missiles for air defense systems used by Ukraine before 1991, when Ukraine was still a region of the Soviet Union. Since independence Ukraine discovered a lot of the missiles for Russian air defense systems, like the S300 and short range Buk-M1, had grown too old to be useful or dependable. All missiles have a shelf life of ten or more years. Once shelf life is exceeded the missiles are unreliable unless refurbished. Ukraine has nearly 10,000 of these expired missiles and lacks the resources to refurbish them.

After the Russians invaded in February 2022, NATO nations provided over 5,000 old Soviet-designed air defense missiles as well as new Western systems and missiles provided as military aid. Once NATO countries delivered massive quantities of new air defense systems in 2022 and 2023, Ukraine was able to create a new air defense system that defeated most Russian missile and air attacks

This was made possible by the arrival of large quantities of several western air defense systems. Some of the aid was Soviet-era systems some east European members of NATO had kept after the Soviet Union Collapsed in 1991 and these countries became independent. Many of these nations, like Poland and the three Baltic States, joined NATO and are now among the many NATO nations supplying Ukraine with air defense weapons and advice on how to best use them. These NATO nations realize that if the Russian aggression is not stopped in Ukraine, they could be next.

The Ukrainian air defense systems are under constant attack by Russian missile and air attacks so the Ukrainians require regular replenishment of their air defense missile supplies to survive continued Russian attacks. The economic sanctions imposed on Russia by NATO nations after the invasion had an impact on the Russian ability to replenish their missile stockpiles after most of the pre-2022 missiles were used against Ukraine. That shortage is helping Ukraine and unless the Russians can do something about their missile supply problems, their attacks on Ukrainian targets will diminish in 2024 and 2025.