November 14, 2024:
Peace in Ukraine is proving very difficult to achieve. Ukraine demands all its territory back. That means Russia giving back Crimea, Donetsk and Luhansk provinces as well as other bits of territory currently in their possession. Vladimir Putin’s attitude is that what’s mine is mine and what’s yours is negotiable. Putin also ignores all the documented war crimes Russian troops have committed carrying out Putin’s orders. Ukraine and the rest of the world have not forgotten but most Russians support Putin and his war in Ukraine. Putin is also stubborn. He will concede nothing until he has no other option and perhaps not even then. Putin continues to believe that NATO and the West will eventually tire of supporting Ukraine and allow Putin to ravage Ukraine until it is again part of the Russian Empire.
The war has been going on for nearly three years now and none, not even most Russians want it to continue for a few more years. Sanctions have eviscerated the Russian economy and most Russians feel the pain. But the politicians and their wealthy oligarch allies live in the cities and feel no pain. Putin realizes that the Russian people know how to suffer in silence and endure for as long as it takes.
Ukraine is negotiating a solution with NATO and the EU that includes Ukrainian membership in NATO despite the ongoing war. NATO is willing to make an exception for Ukraine because NATO is supposed to defend its members and Ukraine is seen as worth defending. The threat has always been Russia and now that Russia is ravaging Europe’s eastern borderlands it’s time for NATO to step in and step up. This includes Ukraine joining the EU, an economic union that will integrate the Ukrainian economy with the rest of Europe. Currently Ukraine expects to achieve all this by the end of the decade. Ukraine has a plan and so does Putin. When the plans collide, who will win?
NATO countries represent a GDP of $32 trillion while Russia’s is two trillion. NATO GDP is growing while Russia struggles. Russia has plenty of oil, natural gas and food but exporting those goods is complicated by sanctions. Russian industry discovered that it was dependent on Western technology to keep its economy going and, with most of that tech no longer available, even the Russian railroads are grinding to a halt.
If Putin persists, most of the industrialized world will resist. Putin will have only himself to blame for the economic and military disaster he has led his nation into.