appears to be moving its main effort to Afghanistan, after operations in Iraq,
North Africa, Somalia and Europe (not to mention North America) have all
largely failed. But continued Taliban activity in Pakistan and Afghanistan has
provided al Qaeda with one area where they might be able to have a little
success. But that will require a change in methods. In the rest of the world,
al Qaeda has caused itself lots of problems by using terror tactics against
Moslems (who refused to support the terrorists). This approach worked, for a
while, but eventually the Moslem victims had enough and turned on al Qaeda.
There have already been some clashes in Pakistan, between angry tribesmen, and
al Qaeda groups that tried to use force to get what they wanted. To many of the
Pushtun tribes along the Pakistani-Afghan frontier, the al Qaeda gunmen are
seen as haughty foreigners, who look down on Pushtuns, and are quick to use
force on anyone who gets in their way.
To take advantage of this,
U.S. forces are talking to Afghan tribes about opposing al Qaeda, and letting
the Americans help them do it. The news of what al Qaeda did in Iraq gets
around, as does the eventual angry reaction of Iraqis. The U.S. is offering the
potentially anti-al Qaeda tribes weapons, equipment and other aid. This might
work, as the Afghan tribes are amenable to gifts, especially from someone they
have shared interests with.