It’s been thirteen years since the last significant outbreak of piracy in the Red Sea. In late 2025 and early 2026, there have been at least 16 incidents of seizing fishing vessels off Somalia and Yemen, kidnappings in Nigeria, and attacks in the Gulf of Aden and off Nigeria.

Violence against commercial shipping in the Red Sea region began in 2010 when it reached levels of activity not seen in over a century. But over the next four years that all changed. By 2013, attacks on ships by Somali pirates had declined 95 percent from the 2010 peak. The rapid collapse of the Somali pirates since 2010 began back in 2009 when 80 seafaring nations formed the Contact Group on Piracy off the Coast of Somalia. The most visible aspect of this was an anti-piracy patrol off the Somali coast. Over two dozen warships and several dozen manned and unmanned aircraft were involved. Space satellite surveillance and foreign intelligence agencies backed this force. Back in 2010, the Somalis accounted for nearly all the hijackings. Pirates are still out there, but they focus more on robbery than kidnapping.

Piracy hit a trough from the late nineteenth century into the late twentieth. Industrialized nations waged a worldwide campaign against pirates. With no place to hide, pirates disappeared.

Piracy revived in the 1970s as many post-colonial governments collapsed. At the same time, people struggled to define piracy. What most people agree on is that piracy is non-state-sanctioned use of force at sea or from the sea. This could include intercepting a boat to rob the passengers, but that's usually just thought of as armed robbery. And something like the seizure of the Achille Lauro in 1985 is considered terrorism, rather than piracy. In the past, some marginal states sanctioned piratical operations, like the Barbary States, but that rarely occurs these days.

There has been more since 2001. For example, in 1991 there were about 120 known cases of real or attempted piracy. In 1994, that increased to more than 200 cases. In 2000, there were 471 cases; in 2005, 359; and by 2010, over 400. There was a resurgence in 2023 and 2024 with a dozen minor incidents. These involved hijackings of a few large ships that were quickly resolved by military action or a ransom payment. The European Union Naval Force patrolled areas where pirates were present and prevented attacks on ships.

An international effort to suppress Somali piracy halted most attacks. What remained was the fact that only off Somalia could ships and crews be taken and held for ransom for long periods. Everywhere else, pirates usually only wanted to rob the crew and steal anything portable they could fit into their small boats. Off the Nigerian coast, pirates sometimes take some ship officers with them to hold for ransom or force the crew to move small tankers to remote locations where most of the oil cargo can be transferred to another ship and sold on the black market.

Pirates usually operate on the margins of society, trying to get a cut of the good life when options are limited. This usually happens where state control is weakest or absent. In Nigeria, Indonesia, or the Philippines, where the government is faced with serious problems that are sometimes out of control, pirates can do whatever they want.

The solution to piracy is essentially on land: enter uncontrolled areas and establish governance. This has been the best approach since the Romans eliminated piracy in the Mediterranean over 2,000 years ago. Trying to tackle piracy at the maritime end can reduce the incidence of piracy but can't eliminate it because the pirates still have safe bases on land. In the modern world, land-based solutions often can't be implemented. Who wants to put enough troops into Somalia to eliminate piracy?

Meanwhile, pirates still thrive in one area. Most of the world's oil exports pass through the Straits of Malacca. Piracy there is largely an Indonesian problem. As Indonesia stabilized after the 2004 Aceh Peace settlement, piracy attacks declined. Since 2010, there has been an increase in piracy off Indonesia, largely because the Indonesians reduced their anti-piracy patrols without warning or explanation. There are lots of targets, with over 50,000 large ships moving through the Straits of Malacca each year. That’s 120-150 a day. Lots of targets. The strait's shallow, tricky waters force big ships to slow to under 30 kilometers an hour, letting speedboats catch them. If pirates board, they rob the crew of valuables and carry off any portable goods. Because their speedboats had limited capacity, these attacks resulted in small losses to the ships involved. By 2025, piracy attacks off Somalia and nearby areas were becoming so rare that shipping insurance rates were declining to normal levels. This was a sure sign that, for the moment, the pirates were gone.

James F Dunnigan