August 24, 2024: Russia’s heavy infantry losses in Ukraine have led to growing problems in obtaining new soldiers. Many Russian military age men have either left the country or gone into hiding to avoid death or injury as a soldier in Ukraine. In the last year Russia tried offering larger and larger amounts of cash for those who would join. This didn’t work because it was common knowledge that the chances of any soldier going to Ukraine and returning unharmed were low.

This led to the recent practice of army recruiting officials raiding businesses looking for Russian men or foreign workers who have avoided registering their status with the government. Businesses have gone along with hiring, and concealing, unregistered men because the heavy losses in Ukraine have caused a growing labor shortage in Russia.

In addition to the raids, which are resisted by employers desperate to keep their operations going, recruiters also stop military age men on the street and demand to see their identification and documents related to their military status. Men who have already served can only be returned to the military if they volunteer. Few do despite the large cash bonuses offered.

The government does not punish firms that actively hide their military age workers because the war-related economic sanctions have weakened the economy and forced the government to concentrate on keeping Russian businesses operating. This included allowing large numbers of foreign workers to enter Russia from nearby countries, including India and Central Asian states. These foreigners are prime targets for the rapacious recruiters. The government does not punish these recruiters either because leader Vladimir Putin insists that the war continue, even though Russia is losing and Russia has started carrying out more raids into Russia. For over a year these were air raids by Ukrainian drones but now Ukrainian troops are raiding into Russia.

Ukraine tried to minimize their own casualties and were aided by the fact that, during the first two years of the war, Russia did most of the attacking and so far, has lost over a half a million troops to death, disability, desertion, capture and disease. Russia still makes some of these attacks but has a hard time finding enough troops willing and able to make such attacks and endure the heavy casualties.

In the end, Ukraine has enough troops to guard the largely quiet 1,200 kilometer front line and allocate some soldiers for raids into Russia.