India-Pakistan: America Threatens To Invade


May 11, 2010: In India, Maoists are moving fighters to an area along the Kerala, Karnataka and Tamil Nadu state borders. Here, the Maoists are seeking to establish an area that security forces cannot penetrate, and the rebels can use for secure bases. The government is moving forces into position to try and stop this Maoist effort. The Indian government has also warned leftist groups (both domestic and foreign) that they risk prosecution for supporting Maoists in any way. Foreign and local leftists have long supported the Maoists in many ways, and helped keep the violence going.

Pakistan has finally agreed to resume peace talks with India, and will host another round of negotiations in July. Meanwhile, Pakistan has to deal an increasingly angry United States. The May 1st attempted car bombing in New York City quickly led to the arrest of a Pakistani immigrant, who had recently spent five months in the Pakistani tribal territories, learning how to carry out terrorist operations. This enraged American voters and politicians, who are now demanding that Pakistan clear out all these Islamic terrorist operations. That's easier said than done, because from the late 1970s, until quite recently, the government supported Islamic radicalism, and nurtured all manner of anti-Western conspiracy theories ("everyone is out to get Pakistan and hurt Islam"). This attitude was nurtured to divert popular anger from the corrupt and inept rulers of Pakistan, which became a popular ploy with the despots so common in the Moslem world. But since September 11, 2001, the Islamic radicals have turned on their patrons in the Pakistani government. Now, like it or not, Pakistan is at war with Islamic radicalism. This is difficult because about a third of the population still favor Islamic radicalism as the cure for all the nation's ills. But as a result of the recent New York City operation, American diplomats have warned the Pakistanis that if the Islamic terror organizations in Pakistan are found to be behind another attack inside the United States, political pressure will force the U.S. to send troops into the tribal territories, even if this enrages many Pakistanis. Pakistani politicians don't like this, but understand how a democracy works, and know that the American troops will invade if the Pakistani based Islamic terrorists are not crushed.

Since the failed, Taliban backed, car bombing in New York City on May 1st, U.S. UAVs have made three attacks in Pakistan's tribal areas. Today's involved several UAVs launching 18 missiles at a terrorist base in Waziristan. At least 14 died from this attack. The UAV operations are supported with growing success in obtaining information about where Islamic terrorist leaders and specialists are. The UAVs often attack within hours, or minutes. This has seriously weakened Taliban and al Qaeda leadership in the last two years.

Pakistani police have detected more Islamic terrorists fleeing the tribal territories and moving into Punjab (the more populous, lowland province adjacent to the most violent tribal territories.) Nervous civilians are turning in these terrorists, who are trying to establish safe houses and bomb workshops in support of more terror attacks (which mostly kill civilians, even though foreigners and security forces are the main target).  

May 10, 2010: Pakistani security forces fought a large battle with Taliban forces in Orakzai (near Waziristan), which left nine soldiers and over 40 Taliban dead. A force of some 200 Taliban gunmen attacked a smaller force of troops, and were repulsed with heavy casualties.

Growing electricity outages (caused by a worsening energy shortage) caused farmers in Baluchistan (southwest Pakistan) to stage a one day strike, which closed most of the main roads. This delayed NATO supplies that travel via the roads in this area.

May 9, 2010: Russian intelligence reported that there are 38-40 terrorist camps in Pakistan, along the Afghan border. The Russians obtained their information from satellite photos and informants on the ground.

May 8, 2010: In India's Chhattisgarh state, a Maoist mine killed eight policemen.  In Pakistan, two ballistic missiles were successfully test fired. Pakistan has several hundred ballistic missiles, some of them equipped with nuclear warheads, and with ranges from 250-2000 kilometers.

May 7, 2010: Pakistan Taliban leader Hakimullah Mehsud, recovered from injuries suffered in a missile attack earlier this year, is releasing videos threatening more attacks in Pakistan and the United States. This is mostly bravado, for the Taliban situation is growing increasingly desperate. Growing hostility from a terrorized Pakistani population has led to a force of over 200,000 troops and police invading the tribal territories. Unlike past incursions, the tribesmen have been unable to use their guerilla tactics to defeat the invaders. Instead, the superior reconnaissance capabilities (aircraft, UAVs American satellites) and weapons (gunships, smart bombs, artillery) have made the Pakistani troops capable of defeating the tribal militias. The Taliban have another problem in that many of the tribes are hostile to them, and either aid the government, or actively hunt down and kill Taliban. This campaign is headed for a bloody defeat of the Islamic radical groups, and many of these radicals are willing to fight to the death. Meanwhile, the Taliban leaders are trying to convince their fighters, with little luck, to avoid civilian casualties. That has not worked, and the civilian deaths continue to enrage Pakistanis against the Taliban and al Qaeda.

May 6, 2010:  In India, the sole survivor of the terrorist team that killed over a hundred people in Mumbai in late 2008, Pakistani Ajmal Amir Kasab, was convicted of murder and sentenced to die. Kasab was seen on video killing people in a train station. In Indian Kashmir, police and troops fought with Pakistani Islamic terrorists for twelve hours, leaving two soldiers and five terrorists dead.

May 5, 2010: In India, over a dozen CRPF police and commanders have been arrested, or are under investigation for stealing weapons and ammo and selling it to criminals and Maoists. One of the principal national police organizations dealing with terrorists and rebels is the Central Reserve Police Force (CRPF). Founded in 1939, and retained when India became independent in 1947, the CRPF now has nearly 200,000 personnel. It deploys over 70 battalions of para-military police. These include seven “rapid action” battalions that can be quickly sent to any part of the country, to deal with outbreaks of violence. The CRPF is heavily involved fighting Maoists.

On the Indian-Nepal border, Hindu radicals attacked Maoists assembled to maintain a national strike in Nepal.  Nepalese Maoists have been maintaining for the last three days. The Maoists have been hostile to Hindus in Nepal, and the Indian Hindu radicals are hostile to this.





Help Keep Us From Drying Up

We need your help! Our subscription base has slowly been dwindling.

Each month we count on your contributions. You can support us in the following ways:

  1. Make sure you spread the word about us. Two ways to do that are to like us on Facebook and follow us on Twitter.
  2. Subscribe to our daily newsletter. We’ll send the news to your email box, and you don’t have to come to the site unless you want to read columns or see photos.
  3. You can contribute to the health of StrategyPage.
Subscribe   Contribute   Close