The Maoists are increasing their undeclared war on monarchists and
minorities that oppose them. A "breakaway faction" of "young
Maoists" has been formed to make attacks (physical and rhetorical) on
opponents, while groups of "former Maoists" organize popular
uprisings as needed. The Maoists understand that they are still a minority,
with lots of enemies. Despite the ceasefire and demobilization, the Maoists
believe that classic (from Mao's own playbook) revolutionary tactics (basically
lie, cheat and steal while chanting political slogans) will carry the day.
June 20, 2007:
The Nepal Defense Army, an organization of radical Hindus, has organized
a suicide bomber operation, to make attacks on the Maoists. The leader of the
Nepal Defense Army is a former Maoist, and typical of the growing opposition to
the Maoists, who are seen intent on establishing a communist dictatorship, not
participating in a democracy, where they can be outvoted. Several recent bombings in the south are
believed to be the work of the Nepal Defense Army, or similar organizations.
June 19, 2007:
Despite the growing opposition to the Maoists, there is still a lot of
corruption and economic inequality to keep Maoist recruiters happy. Nepal is a
feudal place in many respects. What has delayed revolution for a long time has
been the diversity and independence of the many hill tribes. But the growing
lowland and urban population has made it possible for change-minded
organizations to grow. So now we have big changes in the works, and the risk of
a bloody civil war.
June 18, 2007:
The Maoists are making some formidable enemies. For example, the Maoists
are repeating their long-time goal of preventing Nepalis from serving in
foreign armies. Currently, about 30,000 Nepalis Gurkhas serve in the Indian
army (along with another 5,000 who are Indian citizens). Another 3,500 serve in
the British army, where they now have pay parity with native British troops.
This makes these soldiers wealthy men by Nepali standards. The Gurkhas are one
(actually two) of the dozens of tribes that make up half the nations
population. While many tribesmen have joined the Maoists, most are more
independent minded, and none more so than the Gurkhas. The Maoists realize
this, and know that if they can get the Gurkhas
to bend, no other tribe will offer serious opposition.
June 16, 2007:
The political parties and Maoists have agreed to eliminate the monarchy.
All that remains is negotiations with the monarchists, to accomplish this
without violence. If that is not possible, then the legislature will simply
strip the king of all power.
June 14, 2007:
Someone threw a bomb at the home of one of the kings former minister
(who had advocated a hard line approach to the Maoists.)
June 11, 2007:
In the southwest, Maoist activists organized demonstrations, which
closed a highway and burned some vehicles, to try and pressure the army to
close a small base in the area. The army refused.
June 8, 2007:
In the south, Hindu militants have been threatening journalists who do
not toe the political line (that the Hindu minority should have more political
power and autonomy).