October 1, 2007:
In yet another successful American test, a
GBI (ground-based interceptor) from Vandenberg Air Force Base has destroyed
a target missile launched from Kodiak, Alaska. This latest test not only
shows that the American missile defense system will work, it is also
going to create a problem for opponents. How? Because killing a defense
program that is working is going to require a lot of explaining, since
the Democratic majority in Congress has long been skeptical of the
Administration's push for a national missile defense.
The successful test, though, poses a problem for them. It is
easy to kill a program that is not going well, like the A-12 naval
fighter, or one that clearly no longer has relevance to the world
situation (see the Crusader self-propelled howitzer). Missile defense
suffers from neither of these problems.
The successful test shows missile defense can work. The
system as it now stands, with 13 operational ground-based interceptors,
and plans to increase to a total of 18 by the end of 2007, is already
sufficient to have neutralized China's force of 24 DF-5 ICBMs. How is
this so, considering that China has 24 DF-5 ICBMs? Simple subtraction
would seem to indicate that at least six ICBMs would get through to
their targets in an attempted strike. Add in the fact that the total
of ground-based interceptors will increase to 38 by the end of 2009,
and that's enough to kill all of the Chinese ICBMs with some GBIs
left over. This does not count Navy SM-3 missiles on three Ticonderoga-class
cruisers and fifteen Arleigh-Burke class destroyers (a total of 55 by the
end of 2009).
And the world situation is also leaving the impression that
it may be a good idea to have the ability to take out an inbound missile.
As of 2006, 25 countries had ballistic missiles and some are not
exactly stable or their leadership is arguably not rational. Deterrence
can only work against a rational opponent. Congress may not want to
fund it, but they do not have the votes to override a veto, and by the
time a new Administration takes over, the program will already have a
lot of assets in place. Furthermore, the system is described as a
counter to North Korea, which has, in the past, launched missiles over
Japan. Iran is another country often sited, and Iranian president
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's statements since assuming office raise the question
of what he might do with ballistic missiles as well.
Ultimately, the reasons missile defense systems will not be
easy to kill, dismantle, and put away are both their progress, and there
are very good reasons to develop them. As such, the missile defense
system is probably not going to stop until the United States has
completed it, rendering the ICBM obsolete. Harold C. Hutchison (haroldc.hutchison@gmail.com)