November 12, 2024: Since Russia invaded in 2022, an unexpected supplier for Ukraine was South Korea. These weapons did not go directly from South Korea to Ukraine. South Korean laws prohibit supplying weapons to nations at war. South Korea honors and evades this prohibition by selling weapons to Ukrainian allies. These allies then provide Ukraine with the weapons the South Korea items replaced. This matters because by 2019 South Korea is the 10th largest defense manufacturer in the world. That’s up from 13th a few years earlier. In 2024 South Korea was number 8 with a 2.8 percent share of defense exports. The top three are the United States with 39 percent, Russia with 19 percent and France with 11 percent.

Currently South Korea is exporting weapons to nations in its neighborhood, with a growing number of orders coming from NATO nations. Poland, which borders Ukraine, is now a major customer for South Korean arms. NATO nations like the quality and competitive prices of South Korean weapons. After 2022 South Korea replaced sanctioned Russia as a supplier of weapons in many regions.

The importance of NATO support for Ukraine after the Russians invaded in 2022 has led pro-NATO nations in the Pacific to establish closer relationships with NATO. Australia, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan and New Zealand, as well as the United States are seeking to apply lessons from how NATO supported Ukraine after Russia invaded to a similar threat in the Pacific where China’s growing navy is acting more aggressively towards its Pacific neighbors. South Korea and Japan have substantial naval and air forces while Australia is upgrading and expanding its own fleet. Although Australian naval bases are far from China, South Korea and Japan, the Australians know from their World War II experience that they are dependent on keeping sea lanes to the Americas, the Middle East, South Korea, Japan, and India open.

While European NATO is largely supporting land operations in Ukraine, in the Pacific any conflict would be over who controls key shipping lanes. Another threat from the Pacific is Chinese support for Russian forces in Ukraine. The Chinese support is unofficial and concealed as much as possible, but it is substantial and growing. China believed the invasion of Ukraine was a mistake, but Russia is a long-time military and economic partner that must not be allowed to fail. Russia was soon losing in Ukraine and may have to admit defeat and leave Ukraine, and probably all the Ukrainian territory Russia has occupied since 2014. Russian leader Vladimir Putin vows that will never happen. Putin had earlier predicted his 2022 invasion would quickly subjugate and conquer Ukraine.

Because of the war the Russian economy is a mess, in part because the Western economic sanctions caused major problems for Russia. The sanctions won’t end until the Ukraine War is over and perhaps not even then. Russia is seen as a long-term threat by NATO countries, and the Pacific nations NATO is now talking to see China as a greater threat to pro-NATO Pacific nations.

China insists it has no intention of using military force against its Pacific neighbors. China has the largest fleet in the region, including aircraft carriers. The Chinese fleet is growing and China expects it to be larger than the entire U.S. fleet by the 2030s, though this is doubtful due to corruption and the problems it has manning its existing fleet. Chinese military practices put more emphasis on intimidation than action. China is heavily dependent on seaborne trade and if that is disrupted it would mean China would not get essential food and petroleum supplies. China has to import food to feed its population with popular items not available in China. Imported petroleum is essential to keep the economy going. Based on past performance, China may threaten and sometimes act aggressively but won’t deliberately try to kill anyone.

The initial Chinese public reaction to a Pacific NATO was to accuse the Americans of seeking such an alliance to sustain U.S. economic and military domination in the Western Pacific. This situation was an aftereffect of World War II. China and Russia agressed in Korea, Vietnam and a few smaller wars. Their only success was in Vietnam, but that came at the expense of economic growth, individual prosperity and personal freedoms. Vietnam is still ruled by a communist dictatorship, although one that is trying to, like China, allow a free market economy to operate. Vietnam is still a communist dictatorship that, unlike China, was unable to make the most of free market opportunities. As a result Vietnam currently has a GDP per capita of $4,300 compared to over $12,000 for China.

South Korea, which remained an ally of the United States since the end of World War II, is now one of the top ten largest economies in the world with a per capita GDP of $35,000. In socialist North Korea it is $1,200. South Korea is a democracy with elected government officials. North Korea is a socialist dictatorship where the government started by Kim Il Sung in 1948 has been continued by his son and grandson as a hereditary dictatorship. Unlike the constitutional monarchies in Europe that are overseen by an elected government, the North Korean hereditary government is a dictatorship with no input from the population.

Because of this situation South Korea welcomes NATO while North Korea condemns it and sells Russia weapons to be used in Ukraine by the Russian invaders.