November 7, 2024:
The Russian Black Sea fleet disappeared from the Black Sea in 2023. Russian warships are still in the Black Sea and the Sea of Azov extension in the northeast, and the more distant naval base at Novorossiysk, but rarely move out of port, even for a few days.
What keeps these Russian Navy ships from going to sea is a very real threat of attack by Ukrainian USVs (Unmanned Surface Vehicles), also known as sea drones. That is changing as Russia developed methods to detect and destroy Ukrainian drones from helicopters. This is done by first-person view (FPV) drones from helicopters. This enables the Russian FPV drone operator to destroy Ukrainian Sea Baby, Mother, and MAGURA USVs. Ukrainian USVs have been used to attack the vital Kerch Strait Bridge using UAVs armed with 320 to 850 kg of explosives.
These USVs are no longer used just for delivering explosives against a target, as they can also be used for reconnaissance when equipped with video cameras that broadcast what they see back to the USV operator. Some USVs have been armed with small rocket launchers. Malyuk has a range of over 700 kilometers, which means it is suitable for operations on the high seas. Endurance is about 60 hours, and top speed is over 70 kilometers an hour. MAGURA has similar characteristics. Mamai was used in a long range attack at the distant naval base at Novorossiysk on Russia’s Black Sea eastern coast, which is a thousand kilometers from Crimea.
Ukraine has been developing subsurface USVs since before the Russian invasion and in early 2023 the first one, the Toloka2 TK-150 was introduced. This USV was 2.5 meters long and equipped with a sensor mast that remained above the surface for navigation and to identify targets. Toloka2 can also carry a small explosive warhead. Ukraine also developed the larger Marichka subsurface USV that is 6 meters long and one meter in diameter. Ukraine has planned for a Western manufacturer to build and weaponize Ukrainian USVs.
Ukrainian USVs have been quite successful in attacking and sinking or disabling Russian navy ships. Most of the Russian Black Sea Fleet ships have been damaged or destroyed by Ukrainian USVs and missiles. Most long-range attacks have been against targets in the Kerch Strait, including the eighteen kilometer long Kerch Strait bridge, which has been repeatedly attacked by Ukrainian USVs. While the Russians repair damage to the bridge as quickly as they can, Ukrainian attacks come more frequently creating more periods where the bridge has to be repaired. The Ukrainians have been unable to destroy stretches of the bridge completely but lesser damage makes the bridge unusable and repairs are more frequent. The Kerch Strait bridge is a vital supply line for Russian forces in the Crimean Peninsula. Sending supplies by sea is no longer practical because of the risk of attack by Ukrainian USVs. This leaves the Kerch Strait bridge and when that is out of commission, the only supply route is a road from Russia that is under observation by the Ukrainians, who can attack supply movements at any time.
The only effective protection from USV attacks is the installation of multiple 25mm or 30mm automatic cannon gun mounts that are automated and use advanced AI and sensors. The guns are able to point downward towards waters close to the hull. This makes it possible for the autocannon to fire on UAVs that get very close to the ship. Russia recently began using weapons like this, from ships as well as helicopters. These are the same helicopters that also drop FPV drones to destroy Ukrainian USVs.