November 5, 2026: When a drone enters a turbojet or turbofan engine, its components strike and destroy the first-stage fan blades, compressor blades, and nearby parts. A minuscule two- or three-kg drone can cause catastrophic, explosive engine failure in a fraction of a second. Ukraine is not known to have used this strategy against Russian helicopters or jet warplanes. That will change now that news of this destructive technique is widely known. It will make commercial and military aircraft subject to terror attacks using drones to destroy aircraft engines and the aircraft as well. We will soon know what impact this will have on civil and military aviation.

Meanwhile, many major efforts are underway to develop new aircraft. A few years ago, Japanese engine maker IHI partnered with Britain’s Rolls-Royce to develop a new engine for Japan’s FX stealth aircraft. The partnership will spend over half a billion dollars to produce a demonstrator (working prototype) within a decade. Rolls-Royce has been developing aircraft engines for over a century. Rolls was one of the first firms to develop a jet engine for fighters during World War II. Right after the war, Rolls sold 25 of its Nene jet engines on the condition that they would not be used for military aircraft. Technically, the Russians complied, but when investigators examined shot-down MiG-15s, the “Russian” jet engine was clearly a copy of the Nene.

While Rolls-Royce still develops some military engines, most of its business is supplying engines as a primary or secondary supplier to Boeing, Airbus, and other commercial aircraft makers. While the American firm General Electric is the largest supplier of airliner engines, Rolls is firmly in second place.

Rolls has also partnered with Japanese engine manufacturer IHI, which also builds engines for large airliners. IHI also built the engines for Japanese F-15s and F-16s. Rolls has operations in Japan and seemed a good fit to develop a more powerful engine for Japan's stealth aircraft, as well as a similar project Britain and other European firms are developing.

In 2016, Japan successfully flight-tested its prototype X2 stealth aircraft, a demonstrator showing it could develop and build a production-model stealth fighter. The X2 project took over a decade, but Japan held off on proceeding with the FX until it received its first American F-35 stealth fighters and could examine what made them successful. Even before Japan received its first of (0f 147) F-35s in 2018, it seemed likely that Japan could create its own. Japan’s first F-35 squadron became operational in early 2019, confirming that Japan could produce what made the F-35 special.

Japan confirmed it could match the F-35's stealth and develop software like the F-35's. Japan has long developed complex software systems and has produced some of the most reliable initial releases. Unique software was a key element of the F-35’s popularity with American and export-nation pilots. By the end of 2020, Japan decided that it could build its own stealth fighter for itself and export customers. In 2014, Japan finally changed its constitution to allow weapons exports. Two restrictions applied: Japan could not export to countries at war or under sanctions.

Exporting its new FX stealth fighter made the project affordable. The FX project will cost $12 billion, and the Japanese parliament provided $703 million in the 2021 defense budget to start work. Japan has been developing technologies for a new fighter for over a decade; as a result, the first FX prototype is expected to make its first flight in 2028 and enter service in the mid-2030s, once the new Japan-British engine is ready for regular use. The FX prototype will test the engine's working prototype, and both nations will share the rights. Japan is also willing to help Britain with its new Tempest sixth-generation aircraft, which will incorporate stealth and even more advanced software.

Japan’s progress with its FX encouraged Britain, and both Tempest and FX are set to enter service in the mid-2030s. The British multinational firm BAE and Rolls-Royce, along with European firms Leonardo and MBDA, are jointly developing Tempest. Tempest will replace Typhoon, which entered service in 2003 and was developed by Airbus, BAE, and Leonardo. Typhoon was developed from a British Aerospace prototype that flew in 1986. British Aerospace later became part of BAE. With Tempest, Britain intends to develop an aircraft that will be more than a demonstrator.

Britain also bought F-35s and realized it needed a European firm to produce a similar aircraft that could compete with the Americans, who had long led in developing the latest aircraft and then grabbed most of the export market. Fewer than 600 Typhoons were built, while contemporary American aircraft, like the F-35, are being produced in the thousands, mainly for export customers. By partnering with Japan, Britain gained an edge the Eurofighter lacked. Without American tech in the FX or Tempest, the builders can export to anyone without the restrictions Americans often impose on those using some of their tech.

James F Dunnigan