August 31, 2024: Back in mid-2023, NATO members agreed to work with Ukraine to achieve defensive capabilities that can deter future Russian aggression once the current war with Russia is over. In early August 2024, Ukraine sent several thousand troops and hundreds of vehicles into Russia. This incursion into the Kursk region, which borders northern Ukraine, was meant to demonstrate, especially to the Russian people, how weak the Russian military had become.

The Russian military was very slow in reacting and after eleven days, the Ukrainians managed to seize 1,150 square kilometers of Russian territory with 82 towns and villages. This included the town of Sudzha. Russian leaders promise to halt the Ukrainian offensive and push them out, but that has not happened yet and may never happen. Russia is losing the war that it started in early 2022 by invading Ukraine. Captured documents revealed that the Russian government believed that victory would be quick because the Ukrainians lacked the will to resist. That turned out to be a major mistake. The Ukrainians not only fought back but largely destroyed the Russian force that was heading for Kiev, the Ukrainian capital. Russia withdrew the remnants of that force and sent them to eastern Ukraine where Russian and Ukrainian forces had been facing and skirmishing with each other since 2014.

Currently Russia has another major offensive underway in eastern Ukraine and it is not making much progress. The Ukrainians have become very good at defeating these offensives and doing so in a way that gets a lot of Russian attackers killed or disabled. Typically the Russian attackers suffer three to four times as many casualties as the Ukrainian defenders. Since early 2022, Russian forces have suffered nearly half a million soldiers killed, wounded or missing. A growing number of Russian troops are surrendering to the Ukrainian forces. Morale among Russian troops is low and getting worse while the Ukrainians have lost far fewer troops since 2022, and many Ukrainian soldiers have been in action for over two years and are far more experienced and better trained than their Russian counterparts. Captured Russian soldiers are surprised at how well off the Ukrainian troops are and how well they treat the Russian prisoners. The Ukrainians observe the Geneva Convention rules for the treatment of prisoners, including allowing prisoners to let their families know they are safe and well. Russia tries to prevent Ukraine from notifying families of prisoners, but in the age of widespread internet use, it’s impossible to block all of those messages.

Over two years of this have demoralized Russian military age men to the point where Russia cannot recruit many Russians to serve in Ukraine. Increasingly, Russia is trying to hire foreign mercenaries, or pay very high cash bonuses to reluctant Russians to fight in Ukraine. Neither is working. The sustained support Ukraine has provided for its forces is in sharp contrast to the dearth of support for Russian troops.

International economic sanctions imposed on Russia after the invasion have gradually reduced the support the Russian economy could provide for the war effort. That support is now reduced to a trickle while NATO support for Ukraine never faltered. The current Ukrainian incursion into Russia convinced doubters that Russia was no longer able to fight effectively. Inside Russia, business and political leaders are openly and privately calling on their President Vladimir Putin to get out of Ukraine and get the Russian economy free of the crippling sanctions. The pressure on Putin is now very visible but he still refuses to quit. That has led to more rumors from inside Russia that Putin’s political, economic and military advisers are urging their president to back down before the situation inside Russia gets out of control.