September 22, 2026: Years, sometimes decades, of peace have an impact on nations. Prosperity increases, but so does depopulation. The quantity and quality of people in East Asia are changing. The populations of China, Japan, Taiwan, South Korea, and Russia are aging and shrinking, while India, the Philippines, Vietnam, and Australia continue to grow.

Russia has a population of 144 million, which is stagnant or declining. Currently, Russia is losing population because of its war in Ukraine, where the fighting has left at least 1.5 million Russians dead, disabled, or missing, plus another million or more military-age men fleeing the country to avoid being mobilized into the army and killed in Ukraine. The Russian birth rate is also declining because of the war's economic impact. Economic sanctions imposed by NATO countries, which represent half of global GDP at $111 trillion, cut Russia off from its usual import sources. NATO countries now include Russian oil sales in the sanctions. Russia can sell that oil elsewhere, but at a lower price. All these problems together mean the Russian birth rate has fallen to 1.4 children. It needs to be 2.1 for the population to remain stable. The current birth rate is the lowest in 200 years and liable to get worse the longer Russians are fighting, dying, or deserting in Ukraine.

China has an official population of 1.42 billion and an actual population of 800 million or less. The Chinese government went to great lengths to conceal the negative population impact of the one-child policy and covid19. But reports from tourists and commercial travelers indicated far fewer Chinese than the government claimed. Satellite photos showed fewer lights in major cities, and many lights in smaller towns were now absent. Unless living in the dark at night became a new Chinese custom, the lower population estimates are apparently accurate.

Japan, Taiwan, and South Korea have declining populations because of prosperity and comfortable living conditions. Worldwide, industrialized countries face lower birth rates for this reason. Japan's birth rate is 1.15, Taiwan’s is 0.89, and South Korea’s is 0.75. Other industrialized countries are experiencing similar birth rates. Italy’s is 1.18; Germany's is 1.62. The United States is no exception, with a birth rate of 1.58.

India has a population of 1.46 billion. That’s nearly 18 percent of the world population. That is changing as India's birth rate of 1.9 is also below the 2.1 replacement rate. The Philippines' birth rate is also 1.9. Vietnam’s is 1.4, and Australia's is 1.8. Some nations have high birth rates. Most are in Africa, where the overall birth rate is 3.1. Worldwide, the rate is 1.75.

This will affect economies, military capabilities, and relationships with major trading and military partners. Two nations matter most for trade. The United States had total exports and imports valued at $5.2 trillion. China did $6.1 trillion in trade. Trade is critical to China, whose middle class is now declining, with the rate of decline increasing. Disrupt economic stability, and you have chaos and maybe even another civil war. China builds most of the world’s commercial shipping, and it has the world’s largest navy, at least in terms of ship numbers. The United States still has a larger fleet in terms of total tonnage, 11 aircraft carriers, and over a century of experience. China may threaten war, but starting one would be a political and economic catastrophe for China. Peace through prosperity is more than a catchy slogan.

The major problem in China is that they are running out of people, new births, and Chinese willing to get married. The population is shrinking and is now somewhere between 800 and 1200 million. The official claim is 1400 million and admits that it is down from 1500 million 11-12 years ago. These calculations use openly available economic data. The fertility rate, or number of children born to each woman, is among the lowest in the world, and nothing the government can do seems able to change it. Chinese women no longer accept the traditional role of wife and mother. Many refuse to marry Chinese men, instead seeking American or European spouses. Americans are preferred because they help with childcare and housework. Most Chinese women don’t have access to foreign men and simply stay single.

China continues trying to make the best of a bad situation they cannot seem to control: a shrinking population, a workforce that is shrinking even faster, and markets for its exports leveling off. Workforce shrinkage raises dire doubts about Chinese export statistics, as remaining where they were six years ago implies an unbelievable rate of labor productivity increases.

These three factors mean China’s Ponzi-scheme economy has reached its limits, with substantial declines now underway. Other East Asian nations have similar problems, though not all involve ongoing Ponzi-scheme financial systems, after experiencing a sustained economic boom that moved much of the population into the middle class. China too has prospered and given several hundred million Chinese people prosperous middle-class lives. This is unprecedented in Chinese history. One downside of this prosperity is that couples have fewer children. When families are poor, they have more children because that is how people can create some support for old age. Children do that, and without savings, children have traditionally supported their elderly parents. With this prosperity, that traditional form of old-age care is eroding.

A prosperous China is now suffering from this, with fewer babies born each year to replace those dying. The current Japanese birth rate is 1.39. In 2008, China’s birth rate had fallen to 1.8 births per woman, well below the replacement rate of 2.1. It has since declined to .7 and, worse, the now-repealed One-Child policy fatally reduced the future number of females of child-bearing age. As a result, the absolute number of new Chinese births for the rest of the century will be a small fraction of what China’s overall population would otherwise indicate. China’s total population began a rapid collapse and reached 800-1200 million in the 2020s instead of the predicted 2030s.

The biggest current problem is the growth of retirees with a steadily shrinking number of workers supporting them. Proposals to allow more births run into arguments about limited resources. Japan is far ahead on this population-decline curve, and China does not want to join it, but no one has yet proposed an acceptable alternative. The impact of fewer births in urban areas over two decades ago is showing up in growing shortages of skilled labor. The cost of manufacturing high-tech items is rising, forcing Chinese manufacturers to move more factories to countries with cheaper labor. The military is giving the troops a raise, especially the technicians. Otherwise, it can’t recruit them or keep them. South Korea already has a birth rate of 1.11, which is lower than Japan’s. The American birth rate is 1.66, but most Western nations have lower rates. For Europe as a whole, the rate is .98.

Chinese manufacturing activity has been shrinking since 2022, and that is one of several indicators that the Chinese economy is in trouble. Infrastructure failures are also widespread, with provincial power outages increasingly common. The problems are largely self-inflicted. The shrinking of Chinese economic activity results from several economic problems, including consumers not resuming their pre-COVID-19 spending habits. Less consumer spending was not expected. None of this should be a surprise because China has faced similar problems before, just not all at once. Paying attention to Chinese history is a respected popular tradition for basing major decisions on. Chinese leader Xi Jinping came to power in 2012 and initially concentrated on reinforcing government control of the military. Xi, like most Chinese leaders, pays more attention to history than foreign counterparts do. Chinese military history spans thousands of years, while Westerners, in most cases, have only a few centuries of it and don’t pay as much attention to past experience as China does.

Chinese economic history over those long periods did not change much either. It was largely feudal, and since 1910, China has tried to develop a form of government capable of handling economic problems more effectively. Xi Jinping has had some success, and the Chinese banking sector has recently improved enough to help revive the economy. The economy is still in bad shape, with too much debt, and many foreign companies pulling out of China while too many Chinese companies are barely staying in business, with a growing number slipping into insolvency and bankruptcy.