Winning: Meager Russian Reaction Force

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October 17, 2024: Ukraine sent several thousand troops and over a hundred tanks and other armored combat vehicles into Russia’s Kursk region in early August. It took a week for the Russians to send any effective response and that force was only able to defend, not always successfully.

Reinforcements to Kursk were meager at first. Satellite photos revealed a convoy accompanied by two mobile field kitchens, with one truck towing a water trailer. There were about twenty trucks carrying troops and supplies. These vehicles had only a few hundred soldiers.

Ukrainians quickly advanced more than 35 kilometers into Russia while surviving the initial weak Russian efforts to halt the advance. The Ukrainian air forces used bombs and attack drones to destroy five bridges the Russians needed to move supplies to their forces. Without those bridges, most Russian troops in the area will soon be out of food, medical supplies and munitions. Meanwhile, Russia evacuated about 200,000 civilians from the area, sending them to nearby areas where there was no fighting.

After two weeks, Ukrainian forces occupied about 1,100 square kilometers of Russian territory. The attack force was accompanied by hundreds of drones. Some were for surveillance, to keep track of Russian forces. Most of the drones were for attacking Russian troops or infrastructure. This includes several key bridges and a few other military facilities.

At first the Russians couldn’t believe that the Ukrainians were invading Russia. This should not have been a surprise because the Russian offensive into Ukraine has been stalled for over a year. The Russians were unable to counterattack for a number of reasons, including fear of failure and too many soldiers who did not want to be in Ukraine. Four weeks after the Kursk invasion began there were nearly 10,000 Ukrainian troops in Russia.

Russian troops were hesitant and often ineffective when trying to stop the Ukrainian offensive. One reason for this is the different Ukrainian and Russian attitudes towards war. Ukrainian troops follow the rules while the Russians are expedient. Russian troops consider themselves as warriors while the Ukrainians strive to send trained soldiers into combat. Russia does have some well-trained and experienced troops in airborne and special operations units. These professionals will still slip into warrior mode when it suits them, or when ordered to do so. For the other ninety percent of Russian troops, warrior mode is often the default mode. By late 2023 there were few of Russian airborne and special operations troops left. These highly trained troops took years to produce. In Ukraine they took casualties that could not be quickly replaced.

 

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